It hasn’t been the best start for either of these presumed Western Conference contenders, but things can change early when the Los Angeles Lakers travel to Denver to face the Nuggets tonight.
The Lakers have yet to find a win early in this NBA season with three losses to fellow Western Conference playoff contenders. The Nuggets started off the season with a terrible loss to the Utah Jazz but followed that up with an impressive win over the Golden State Warriors and now sit at 2-2. Will the Lakers finally get themselves into the win column?
Find out in our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Nuggets on Wednesday, October 26.
Lakers vs Nuggets best odds
Lakers vs Nuggets picks and predictions
It’s a small sample size, but this is a true test of good offense vs. bad defense and vice versa. The Nuggets allow more points per game than any other team in the NBA at 124.5 through four contests. However, the Lakers only average 103.3 points per game, which ranks 29th in the league.
On the other end, the Nuggets average 115.5 points per game, which is 14th in the NBA, and the Lakers only allow 110.7 points per contest, also 14th in the league. Something must give here and it will likely be on the glass.
The Lakers are allowing more rebounds per game this season than any other team in the NBA at a whopping 52.7. Meanwhile, they are facing one of the league's premier rebounders in two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 10.3 boards so far this season.
Jokic is scooping up over 25% of the Nuggets’ rebounds and has performed well on the boards against the Lakers throughout his career. He's averaged 10.8 rebounds per game in his 20 career games against the Lakers and dropped 12 and 18, respectively, in his two games against Los Angeles last season.
The Lakers have also allowed the top rebounder from each team they've faced to dominate the glass. The Warriors do not have a big-time rebounder, but James Wiseman had seven rebounds in only 17 minutes off the bench. Clippers center Ivica Zubac had 17 and Trail Blazers forward Josh Hart had 16.
Jokic will have no problem getting rebounds, especially against a Lakers offense that is struggling to get the ball into the basket. The worst shooting team in the Association will give the MVP plenty of chances to clear this NBA props rebounding total of 12.5 and I am confident he will make the best of those chances.
My best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds (-104)
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Lakers vs Nuggets spread analysis
Not only are the Lakers 0-3 straight up this season, but they are also 0-3 against the spread. The Nuggets have not been great ATS themselves, however, as they are 1-3 to start the season.
The worst part of this for the Nuggets is they have yet to cover as a favorite. The one game they won as a favorite was only by five points, but they were favored by nine. NBA odds have the Nuggets as six-point favorites tonight.
However, Denver did cover both matchups last season in which Jokic played against the Lakers. They were similar favorites in each of those games. This will be the first matchup between these two teams that Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Jokic all played in the same game since February 14, 2021. The Nuggets won that game by 17 points as 3-point underdogs.
While I feel strongly that Jokic will own the boards, I also expect the Lakers defense will largely prevail, especially with more minutes from Patrick Beverley with Russell Westbrook on the shelf. I would not necessarily lean on the Lakers moneyline, but the spread feels safe and is worth taking above four points.
Lakers vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis
This is the highest total of the season for any Lakers game, which is understandable given the Nuggets’ style of play. However, Denver’s lowest total of the season against the Jazz did hit the Under. If the Lakers play their style of game, this total will also go Under.
The history of this matchup favors the Over as it is 28-10-2 in the last 40 meetings. However, this is different from a typical one for the Lakers. They are much more defensive-minded and have a struggling offense.
Beverley will be tasked with perimeter defense on the likes of Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Murray has struggled to get his shooting touch back from his long injury hiatus, as he is only shooting 37.8% from the field. He is unlikely to get it back in this matchup, so give me the Under.
Lakers vs Nuggets betting trend to know
The Nuggets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Nuggets.
Lakers vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 26, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
