Lakers vs Pelicans Picks and Predictions: Davis Back in Form on ESPN

After flirting with homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, the New Orleans Pelicans suddenly find themselves in the midst of a losing streak that has stretched to double digits. Their opponents tonight, the Los Angeles Lakers, were left for dead by most analysts after a 2-10 start, but now find themselves in position to pass New Orleans in the standings with a win on Saturday, February 4.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Pelicans expect Anthony Davis to dominate his matchup advantages tonight.

Lakers vs Pelicans best odds

Lakers vs Pelicans picks and predictions

I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Anthony Davis was an All-Star snub. But what I will say is that on a per-minute basis, AD has played closer to the level of a Top-5 player in the NBA this season than he has outside the Top-15 in the West. 

Before his recent ankle sprain, Davis was in the middle of the most efficient season of his career as well as his most productive one with the Los Angeles Lakers. He’s up to 129.4 PSA (points per 100 shot attempts) per Cleaning the Glass as well as an effective field goal percentage of 58.7%. He’s drawing fouls at near-career-best rates too, fully embracing his role as a more traditional offensive center, using finesse as an augment to his game rather than as an alternative to bully ball.

Davis has been back in the lineup for four games now, and the training wheels were only totally taken off in his last two outings against the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks. He posted games of 31 points and 27 points, respectively, and looked to be all the way back. 

And he should have little issue pulling off a similar performance tonight against the New Orleans Pelicans' frontcourt. Jonas Valanciunas is a capable scorer, but he’s no defensive match for AD. He’s also seen his minutes capped at around 20 minutes or so, as Willie Green continues to opt for the more defensively-minded Larry Nance Jr. to close out games. But Nance is a small ball five, 6-foot-7 on a good day, and that’s simply not going to get it done against Davis. 

Green’s options instead are limited, he can go back to Valanciunas for an extended stretch, but Davis is too mobile for him. Other options are Willie Hernangomez or Jaxon Hayes.  Hernangomez struggles to defend at the NBA level much more than either Nance or JV, while Hayes lacks the discipline to avoid fouling Davis. The Lakers love to mismatch hunt, and AD is going to have his pick of targets for the duration of Saturday’s action.

There is always a little something extra when the AD faces off with his former team. That it’s a nationally-televised ESPN game should ensure that Davis brings his A-game.

My best bet: Anthony Davis Over 25.5 points (-125)

Lakers vs Pelicans spread analysis

There’s rock bottom, then there’s wherever the Pels are right now. Losers of 10 straight, they’ve posted a -9.3 net rating over the last two weeks. Despite being a team of offense-first players, they’ve been the worst offense in basketball for the last seven games and are 0-5 against the spread in their last five overall. 

There’s hope for the offense to come around soon though, as Brandon Ingram finally looked like himself in the Pels’ previous game, adding 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists on 50% from the field. If Ingram can establish himself early in this game, the Lakers will struggle to guard New Orleans, as the Lakers' best defenders are all either too short or too slow to hang with Ingram. 

The Lakers for their part have been an up-and-down team recently. They narrowly beat the Indiana Pacers and are just 2-5 ATS when they play on one day of rest. Their most positive trend is that they take care of the bad teams. They’re 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. But whatever their recent struggles, New Orleans is better than the truly bad teams in the league.

Lakers vs Pelicans Over/Under analysis

These teams are both Top-10 in pace and the Lakers emphasize attacking in transition as much as possible off live rebounds to avoid the sometimes-clunky nature of their halfcourt offense. That style of offense is effective but exhausting, and their willingness to execute it seems to wax and wane given the relative quality of their opponent. That’s probably a factor in the Under being 4-0 in L.A.’s last four games against losing teams, as they don’t put as much effort in over the course of the full game to get those better looks on the run.

But the Lakers’ halfcourt offense looks like the 2013-14 Miami Heat compared to the Pelicans' offense right now. It’s truly hard to be the worst offense in the NBA for a two-week stretch when teams like the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets exist, but that’s where New Orleans finds itself. That’s been a major contributing factor in the Under cashing in five of the Pelicans' last six home games, as well as five of their last seven games overall. Still, I’m wary of their offense eventually clicking with Ingram back in rhythm, and at 235.5 this Total is right in stay-away range for me.

Lakers vs Pelicans betting trend to know

Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Pelicans.

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