Get ready to learn how crow tastes, Dallas Mavericks. It's not anyone on the roster’s fault that Luka Doncic should dial up some satisfaction, it's the front office’s. Nonetheless, the now Los Angeles Lakers superstar has his first chance against his former franchise tonight.
And my Mavericks vs. Lakers prediction and NBA picks lean into Doncic’s opportunity to gloat. Tip comes at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, February 25 on TNT. For a more contrarian take, we've also got a Luka Doncic odds spotlight from Ed Scimia.
Mavericks vs Lakers prediction
My best bet
Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Backing Luka Doncic was not the original intention here. The hefty spread favoring the Los Angeles Lakers by nine scared off any thoughts of a side as the best bet, but some consideration was given to betting on Kyrie Irving to score more than 26.5 points.
The Lakers’ backcourt is rather lacking in defense these days, after all. Neither Doncic nor Austin Reaves is a pertinent defender. On paper, Kyrie could have free roam.
Even if Los Angeles devotes LeBron James to defending his former teammate — James is listed as probable with left foot injury management but has played in all three games since the All-Star Break — Irving will get loose on switches or even just lineup shifts and should cruise toward a decent night.
But then a look at the schedule revealed a red flag. The Dallas Mavericks had an idle evening in Los Angeles last night. Sure, it was a Monday, but the Mavericks may still be a bit fatigued, so to speak. With that in mind, the Lakers may devote added defensive resources to Kyrie.
Thus, Dallas may struggle to keep anyone on Doncic. P.J. Washington can do only so much. And with Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively II all injured, the Mavericks have no other quality defender to throw at their former franchise face. Added fatigue will only exacerbate that worry.
Let’s not overthink this. Let’s not bet on a hefty spread. Let’s not ask Kyrie Irving to match Luka Doncic with no help.
Let’s bet on Luka in his first chance to rub Nico Harrison’s nose in his mistake. Doncic will face little defensive resistance, certainly less than he did on Saturday when he cracked 30 points for the first time with the Lakers. Luka is finding his way with his unexpected new team. Tonight will emphasize that.
Mavericks vs Lakers same-game parlay
Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points
Lakers -9
Mavericks team total Under 111.5
Since the monumental Doncic trade, Dallas has actually gone 5-4 outright and 6-2-1 against the spread. But when the Mavericks have lost, they have often lost by a bounty, falling by 43 points to the Cavs on Feb. 2 and by 24 on Sunday to the Warriors. It will not be a total shock to see Dallas get blown out tonight.
In fact, without Doncic as the offensive engine, Dallas has fallen short of this modest team total in three of its last four games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mavericks vs Lakers odds
Mavericks vs Lakers live odds
Mavericks vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +4.5 (-105) | Los Angeles -4.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Dallas +170 | Los Angeles -205
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mavericks vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread has actually been available for more than three weeks. Once the Doncic-for-Davis trade was reported, sportsbooks opened this game with the Lakers favored by 4.5 points, a number that jumped to -6 and then -7 once Anthony Davis was injured.
- More earnestly, this spread reached -8 this week when it would usually have found the board on Monday, climbing to -9 by Tuesday morning.
- This spread peaked at -9.5 early on Tuesday, then returned to -9.
- Once Davis was injured, this total jumped to 228.5 and only climbed further this week, reaching 230.5 by the end of Monday.
Mavericks vs Lakers trend
The Lakers are 8-3 against the spread at home since New Year’s Day. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Lakers.
How to watch Mavericks vs Lakers
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, max |
Mavericks vs Lakers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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