Luka Doncic will have his first chance to get revenge on his old team tonight when the Los Angeles Lakers host the Dallas Mavericks.
I’ll look closer at the Luka Doncic odds and see what NBA player props we should consider in my free NBA picks for Tuesday, February 25.
Douglas Farmer is more bullish on Doncic in his complete Mavericks vs. Lakers predictions.
Luka Doncic player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 31.5 points
(-115 at bet365) - SGP pick
Doncic Under 31.5 points
Under 232.5
Lakers moneyline
(+300 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Luka Doncic best bet
Under 31.5 points (-115 at bet365)
We've seen signs of both angles on his trade in four games since Luka Doncic was traded to the Los Angeles Lakers. At times, Doncic has looked out of shape and exploitable on defense, the defects the Dallas front office thought were enough to get rid of the young superstar.
On the other hand, Luka showed he’s one of the most unstoppable offensive weapons in the world in a 123-100 win over Denver on Saturday.
So, which version will we see tonight? The temptation is to see this as a revenge game for Doncic, one in which he’ll look to punish his former team by putting up huge numbers. But I have a couple of problems with this narrative.
Make no mistake: I’m sure Doncic wants this game badly. But Dallas will also want to do anything it can to make sure he doesn't embarrass it, especially the first time the Mavs play against him. As such, I see an all-out effort to let someone — anyone — other than Luka beat Dallas tonight.
Similarly, while Doncic wants to win, I don’t think he will be that obsessed with his scoring numbers. The key for him will be getting a win over his former team, and he can just as easily do that dishing out assists, grabbing boards, and acting as a secondary scoring threat.
As the Lakers move up the standings, they’ll want to ensure they keep winning rather than just pad Luka’s numbers.
In any case, 32 points is a huge total for any player, even Doncic. The Slovenian has hit that total just eight times in his 26 games this year and is averaging 26.7 ppg for the season, a number that has dropped to 19.0 ppg with the Lakers.
Dallas is halfway decent on defense, and Los Angeles doesn’t generally like to push the pace. Put it all together, and tonight’s points total seems based more on what people hope to see rather than the reality of what we should expect tonight.
Luka Doncic same-game parlay
Luka Doncic Under 31.5
Under 232.5
Lakers moneyline
None of what I wrote above is meant to disparage Doncic, who undoubtedly has made the Lakers a better and more dangerous team. And that’s why I expect Luka to help lead Los Angeles to victory tonight.
In my opinion, the revenge game narrative has some teeth regarding the final result, especially considering the Lakers are a fairly significant home favorite.
Luka won’t want to be embarrassed by his former team in his new home, so I expect a great effort from him and his Los Angeles teammates tonight.
A slight negative correlation exists between taking Luka’s scoring Under and the Lakers to win outright, so this is a nice value play in a SGP.
Both teams have been playing towards the Under lately, with the Lakers hitting the Under in three straight games while Dallas has done so in three of its last four.
Neither team has hit Over 232.5 since the All-Star break, so I’m throwing an Under bet into my parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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