Only nine teams in NBA history have begun the season 0-4 and still made the playoffs. The Los Angeles Lakers are hoping to become the 10th.
L.A. lost its fourth game of the season on Wednesday night, falling 110-99 on the road to the Denver Nuggets. It was another ugly, lopsided defeat, punctuated by a 17-point third quarter in which the Lakers shot just 5-for-17.
L.A. will have a chance to get into the win column tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but it won’t be easy. The Wolves are 3-2 on the season and are riding high after a convincing 12-point win over the surprisingly-pesky San Antonio Spurs.
Will Los Angeles snap out of its funk in the Twin Cities, or will Minnesota add to its misery? Find out with our free NBA betting picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Timberwolves on Friday, October 28.
Lakers vs Timberwolves best odds
Lakers vs Timberwolves picks and predictions
Much had been made of L.A.’s defense this season, and deservedly so. Los Angeles has the fourth-best defensive rating in the league after finishing a distant 21st a year ago. And while the Lakers have certainly improved on that side of the ball, they’re still getting roasted by rival point guards.
L.A. is giving up 33.9 points per game to opposing ballhandlers, which is nearly 20 points more than the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Association’s stingiest team. The Lakers’ inability to shut down – or even mildly inconvenience – point guards was especially evident against the Portland Trail Blazers, as Damian Lillard erupted for 41 points in just 34 minutes. The six-time All-Star hit 15 of his 25 shot attempts, including six of his 13 treys. It was a similar story for Steph Curry, who had 33 points in 33 minutes and treated the Lakers' perimeter defenders as if they were little more than traffic cones.
That troubling trend plays right into the hands of D’Angelo Russell. DLo is averaging 17.1 points per game this season, and that number would be considerably higher were it not for a quiet outing against the Thunder in which he logged just 25 minutes and focused mainly on his facilitation. Russell has already scored 20 points or more in three of his five games and is on pace to finish with the highest effective field goal percentage of his eight-year career.
A Laker from 2015-17, Russell has also saved some of his best efforts for his former franchise. The 6-foot-4 point guard has averaged 16.1 points in nine games against L.A. and was especially lethal last year. He dropped 22 points on Los Angeles on November 12 and 17 more on December 17. Those strong performances resulted in a pair of wins for the Wolves.
Expect another big night from DLo tonight as he takes it to his former employers.
My best bet: D'Angelo Russell Over 17.5 points (-105)
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Lakers vs Timberwolves spread analysis
New season, same old problems for the Lakers. Despite adding 10 new players from a year ago, L.A. failed to address its most dire need: outside shooting. That was painfully evident in the preseason, as Darvin Ham’s guard-heavy squad shot just 28.6% from beyond the arc. The Lakers looked especially impotent in their final tune-up against the Timberwolves, as they missed 16 straight 3-pointers during the first half.
The team’s abysmal marksmanship was on display again on opening night, as L.A. went 10-40 from deep, including a 2-for-20 stretch when it felt as though the Lakers were trying to punish the rim for past transgressions. Things have only gotten worse since — L.A. now ranks dead last in 3-point shooting at 22.3%.
LeBron James was recently asked about his team’s poor performance and his response was particularly revealing: “We’re getting great looks, but it could also be teams giving us great looks,” he admitted. “To be completely honest, we’re not a team constructed of great shooting… It’s not like we’re sitting here with a lot of lasers on our team.”
And there’s the rub. The Lakers don’t have a single consistent 3-point threat on their roster. James and Troy Brown Jr. are the only players on the team who made more than 35% of their 3-point attempts last season, and both are connecting at well below that clip this year.
The Lakers’ horrendous shooting is in stark contrast to the Wolves, who possess a Top 10 offense, and rank fifth in effective field goal percentage and seventh in true shooting percentage. Minnesota has also been far better at generating second-chance opportunities thanks to the length and activity of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, who collectively assure the Wolves have an All-Star center on the court at all times. That’s a luxury that most teams – and L.A. in particular – simply don’t have.
Add it all up and it’s easy to see why the Lakers opened this game as 6.5-point underdogs and, more tellingly, why that number has jumped to as high as 8.5 at some books since.
Lakers vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis
The total for this game opened at 227.5 and has since been bet up to 229.5 at most shops. It’s a bit of a curious development given the strength of L.A.’s defense combined with the fact the team ranks 30th in scoring and offensive rating due to its historically bad shooting.
It’s still early, of course, but Los Angeles is on pace to finish with the worst shooting percentage since the 2014-15 Philadelphia 76ers, a team that produced just 18 wins. Everyone knows about the Lakers’ 3-point woes, but they haven’t been much better inside the arc either, where they’re hitting just 41.6% of their shots. Patrick Beverley (21.1%) and Russell Westbrook (28.9%) have been the biggest culprits, but there’s plenty of blame to go around, as a whooping seven Lakers are shooting below 40% from the field.
Minnesota has been considerably better offensively, but the Timberwolves haven’t exactly been putting the NBA on notice either. They managed just 106 points in a loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday and are still figuring out how best to utilize Gobert and Towns in unison.
Having two All-Star bigs is wonderful in theory, but it has created some spacing issues on offense, as KAT has had to play further from the basket to accommodate Gobert’s limited range. The two players will eventually hit their groove, but don’t be surprised if Minnesota’s offense struggles at times as they figure out how to co-exist.
It’s worth mentioning that the Under is 5-1 in the Lakers’ last six games following an ATS loss, and 4-0 in the Timberwolves’ last four games following an ATS win.
Lakers vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Timberwolves.
Lakers vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Friday, October 28, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSN, SPECSN |
