Lakers vs Trail Blazers Picks and Predictions: Nurkic Outmuscles L.A.

Two teams at the bottom of their respective divisions fight over a rare win Sunday night when the Portland Trail Blazers host the Los Angeles Lakers.

Portland brings a two-game slide into Sunday’s showdown and has only two wins in the past nine outings while Los Angeles is ripe for a letdown after a dramatic victory against Memphis at home Friday — just its second win in the past six contests.

The Blazers opened as 4.5-point home chalk with Lakers’ star LeBron James listed as questionable due to a nagging ankle injury. With that spread climbing, the betting market could be telling us that James sits out Sunday night before the official injury reports are released.

I break down the spread and total for this West Coast war and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Lakers at Trail Blazers on January 22.

Lakers vs Trail Blazers best odds

Lakers vs Trail Blazers picks and predictions

Portland center Jusuf Nurkic gets a break from battling elite big men tonight. He’s gone toe-to-toe with the two best centers in the NBA in back-to-back games, facing Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic, and now avoids the injured Anthony Davis.

Nurkic didn’t fare well against those select centers and found himself in foul trouble against Philadelphia and Denver, which limited his effectiveness. He struggled to score, shooting a collective 4-for-19 from the field for a combined 10 points, but still battled on the boards for a collective 21 rebounds in those games.

Should LeBron James sit out tonight, Nurkic will face a much smaller Lakers lineup and not as tough a check in Los Angeles center Thomas Bryant. That opens the window for his points + rebounds prop, which is sitting at 25.5 (Over -120), despite Nurkic going Under in this market in three straight contests.

In the two games prior to the Nuggets and 76ers, Nurkic beat up a smaller Dallas lineup for scoring efforts of 20 and 22 points in a two-game set with the Mavericks. 

He came just short of his points + rebounds prop in the last meeting with the Mavs, thanks to two quick fouls which limited his minutes in the first half, finishing with 20 points and four rebounds in 20 minutes against a points + rebound total of 26.5. 

While he’s stayed Under in this combo prop the past three games, Nurkic went Over in points + rebounds in four of the previous five outings (totals from 23.5 to 25.5). He’s also been much livelier at home on the year, averaging 16 points and 10.4 rebounds inside the Moda Center compared to just 12.5 points and 9.7 rebounds on the road.

Los Angeles is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, sitting 21st in rebound percentage on the season. With James possibly sitting out, coach Tyronn Lue rolls out a rotation that only goes as big as the 6-foot-10 Bryant at center then drops to 6-foot-6 Juan Toscano-Anderson and 6-foot-5 Austin Reeves at forward, with 6-foot-9 Wenyen Gabriel coming off the bench.

Nurkic is going to have a much easier night on the glass and won’t have to drain himself guarding all-world opposition, allowing him to stay out of foul trouble and do more damage with the basketball.

My best bet: Jusuf Nurkic Over 25.5 points + rebounds (-120)

Lakers vs Trail Blazers spread analysis

The Blazers hit the board as 4.5-point home favorites despite their recent form and that spread has since marched as high as -6.5, with early play on Portland.

James is a game-time decision due to ankle soreness that has had him in and out of the lineup this season, but that quick two-point jump in the spread could be a precursor to LeBron sitting out. 

Los Angeles is coming off an upset win over Memphis, with just as much action on the sideline between the Grizzlies and former NFLer and Fox Sports host Shannon Sharpe stealing headlines. In the midst of that hoopla, the Lakers battled back from 13 points down in the fourth quarter to steal a 122-121 home victory with James playing more than 36 minutes. 

With the rival Clippers coming up on the schedule Tuesday and a busy week for L.A. ahead, James could choose to rest up tonight. That would leave the Lakers without their go-to scorer and facilitator on offense. The last time James sat out, head coach Tyronn Lue rolled out a smaller starting lineup in a win over Miami back on January 4.

The Trail Blazers are a much different team inside the Moda Center. Portland scores 10 more points at home versus on the road and shoots almost 49% from the field while making close to 14 3-pointers per contest. That’s led to a +5.3 margin of victory as a host (compared to -3.8 as a visitor) and a 12-8 ATS mark in home games (versus 12-13 ATS on the road).

Los Angeles has been a miserable road bet this season, at 9-13-1 ATS. Los Angeles owns an average margin of -5.2 as a visitor with the biggest downtick coming on defense, where it allows 121.1 points per game to host teams (versus 115.0 in L.A.).

Lakers vs Trail Blazers Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under for tonight’s game opened at 237 points and has since climbed to 239.5 points as of Sunday morning.

Neither side shines on defense with Los Angeles and Portland ranked No. 20 and No. 21 in advanced defensive rating, respectively. The Lakers are still missing their key defender in rim protector Anthony Davis and have allowed foes to average almost 121 points on 48.5% shooting over the nine games without Davis in the lineup.

Portland showed grit in the second half of Thursday’s loss to Philadelphia, checking the 76ers to 48 second-half points after giving up 57 in the first 24 minutes. The Trail Blazers still allowed the Sixers to shoot 51% from the field and were pushed around in the paint for 54 points, with Joel Embiid scoring 32 points. 

Without Davis and potentially without James, the Lakers don’t have bigger bodies to battle inside and rely more on their speedy guards to get dribble penetration and attack the rim. Los Angeles continues to struggle from behind the arc, ranked dead last in 3-pointers per game. 

Without James leading the charge in transition, L.A.’s tempo takes a dip. Los Angeles owns one of the fastest pace ratings in the NBA (102.46) and clashes against a more methodical tempo from Portland tonight, with the Blazers ranked 24th in pace.

Portland is 19-25-1 Over/Under on the season, with an 11-9 O/U record at home. Los Angeles enters Sunday at 25-21 O/U, including a 14-9 O/U mark as a visitor.

Lakers vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

The Trail Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Trail Blazers.

Lakers vs Trail Blazers game info

Lakers vs Trail Blazers key injuries

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