Lakers vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Golden State Rolls Through Lifeless LA

The Los Angeles Lakers are not contenders this year, there is no way to sugarcoat that. Every time they face a top-tier opponent, that reality gets proven once more. 

The Golden State Warriors are not only a top-tier opponent, but they are contenders this year. With Klay Thompson back, Golden State has looked more and more like the league-wrecking offense of years ago. That offense should be enough tonight to add to the Lakers’ woes.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Lakers at the Warriors on February 12, with tip set for 8:30 ET.

Lakers vs Warriors odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Warriors opened as 7.0-point favorites late Friday, a number that remained constant except for a few moments at -6.5. The total hardly moved, either, opening at 224.5 and simply rising to 225.0.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lakers vs Warriors predictions

• Prediction: Warriors -6.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 225.0 (-110)
• Best bet: Curry Under 24.5 points (-110)

Predictions made on 2/12/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Lakers vs Warriors game info

• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Saturday, February 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Lakers vs Warriors betting preview

Key injuries

Lakers: Anthony Davis PF (Probable), Dwight Howard C (Probable), LeBron James SF (Questionable), Russell Westbrook PG (Questionable), Carmelo Anthony SF (Out), Kendrick Nunn PG (Out).
Warriors: Otto Porter Jr. SF (Questionable), Andre Iguodala SG (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Draymond Green PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in the Lakers' last four games as an underdog, a stretch that extends back two weeks. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Warriors.

Lakers vs Warriors picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

There is no more pretending in Hollywood. The Lakers are not anywhere near the league’s elite, and they are not going to join those ranks anytime this season. Los Angeles is closer to falling out of the play-in than it is of climbing into the Top 6 in the West. Going 3-7 in their last 10, including 1-3 in their last four, has exposed all the Lakers’ flaws, and inaction at the trade deadline ensured those flaws would remain through the season.

Those flaws are most exposed against quality opponents. Los Angeles last won as an underdog at Brooklyn on Jan. 25, losing five games as a ‘dog since then. And note, that was a road game at Brooklyn, essentially playing James Harden and a bunch of questionable roster pieces, hardly the most quality of opponents.

The Bucks blew out the Lakers on Tuesday, the Hawks won easily a week before that, and the Sixers rolled through them in their game after that Brooklyn upset. In their last 10 games, the Lakers’ seven losses have come by an average of 7.6 points.

Which is all to say, Los Angeles is only nominally competitive at this point. Playing the Blazers or the Clippers close is one thing. There is no reason to think the Lakers can do so against the Warriors, particularly not the Warriors of late.

Golden State has turned on its offense the last couple of weeks. The Warriors’ season-long offensive rating is 111.8, good for No. 13 in the league, but in their last 10 games, the Warriors have turned that up to 119.2.

Meanwhile, the Lakers’ defense in the last 10 games ranks No. 16 in the league, one of those flaws keeping Los Angeles far from the league’s elite. The Lakers might have been able to keep up with the Warriors before Klay Thompson returned and found his rhythm, but at this point, the gap between Golden State’s offense and Los Angeles’ defense is even bigger than the 15-game gap between them in the standings.

Prediction: Warriors -6.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Warriors are simply humming. Six players are averaging double digits in their last 10 games. When not playing the Jazz — very clearly a Golden State frustration and a concern come playoffs — the Warriors have averaged 120 points per game in their last 10 games. Well, their last eight games, due to those two Utah exceptions.

They have scored at least 110 points in eight of their last nine games, the exception of course coming against the Jazz.

No one can slow down Golden State right now unless their defense is led by a tall Frenchman. And the Lakers’ defense is led by a hobbled Chicago native and an even more hobbled LeBron.

The Warriors should set the pace tonight, and if they come near their average output of late, that should propel this game to the Over.

Prediction: Over 225.0 (-110)

Best bet

Maybe this is being stubborn, or maybe it is a proper betting strategy. One game should not force a handicapper to abandon an angle if that angle is profitable long-term. And betting against Steph Curry’s scoring bursts has been profitable this month, even if suggesting doing so on Thursday cost us some money when he scored 35 points on 11-of-25 shooting in a loss to the Knicks.

That showing does not change the fact that Curry has not been filling up the bucket lately, and his 5-of-16 shooting from deep on Friday does not inspire much confidence that he is about to flip that proverbial switch.

Curry has fallen short of 20 points in 10 of his last 18 games. He has fallen short of 25 in another two of those. Since New Year’s Day, Curry has struggled to find his usual rhythm. And yes, this portion of this handicap is parroting much of Thursday’s specifically to emphasize this double down.

Furthermore, Curry has not starred against the Lakers the last few years. Since LeBron arrived in Hollywood, Curry has averaged 17.1 points in eight games against Los Angeles, falling short of 25 points in six of those games.

As long as Curry’s nightly total is this high then it is worth fading every night. At least, until Curry goes off anew, which may not come until Draymond Green returns to action.

Pick: Steph Curry Under 24.5 points (-110)

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