Lakers vs Warriors Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Davis & Co. Lock Down the Splash Brothers

The Golden State Warriors are running a gauntlet filled with the ghosts of playoffs past this week. First, they dropped a heartbreaker against the Sacramento Kings, the team they beat in the first round last season. Now on Saturday, they host LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA odds, who in turn sent them packing in the second round last May.

My NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Warriors believe last year’s playoff series provided ample evidence for why this game won’t be as high-scoring as oddsmakers suggest.

Lakers vs Warriors odds

Lakers vs Warriors predictions

Heading into the series against the Los Angeles Lakers last spring, many favored the Golden State Warriors. After all, the Warriors had just gone seven games against Sacramento, capped off by a 50-point game by Steph Curry to get them over the top. They were battle-tested and less than a year removed from winning the title.

The Lakers beat them handily, largely because the Warriors couldn’t score. And the reason they couldn’t score is because they couldn’t get to the rim. The Warriors are indeed a jump-shooting team, but they also use their sharpshooters to get opposing teams in rotation. 

The goal is to get the opposing team moving, making decisions, and making mistakes. With those breakdowns, the next goal is to attack the rim. The Warriors have had immense success through the Curry era with scoring at the rim, which has sustained their offense even on nights when the Splash Brothers weren’t hot from the outside.

But that strategy, which has had so much success in prior years, was dead on arrival when the Warriors ran into the Lakers in the Western Conference semifinals. The reason was twofold: nobody outside of Steph could make an outside shot, but first and foremost, Anthony Davis completely locked down the paint.

Davis was able to corral the Warriors in pick and roll, defend the paint, and not foul. They completely denied the Warriors their usual diet of looks at the rim, and the Warriors’ offense went to pieces as a result.

AD is having another monstrous defensive season this year. If not for Rudy Gobert, he’d likely be the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year. He’s perfectly capable of repeating his impact from the playoffs.

While Davis is technically questionable for Saturday’s contest, he’s been on injury reports with this same ankle issue off and on practically the entire season and has missed just two games. I would be shocked if he didn’t suit up for what is an extremely important game within the lower echelon of the West playoff race.

The total for this game is available as high as 243.5. Through six games in last year’s playoffs, no game had a total higher than 229 points and the average total was just 222.5. Even if we don’t see that level of playoff intensity on defense, LeBron James and Steph are always going to be motivated to play their best against one another.

My best bet: Under 243.5 (-110 at 888sport)

Lakers vs Warriors same-game parlay

Under 243

D'Angelo Russell Over 18.5 points

Anthony Davis Over 11.5 rebounds

+575 at DraftKings

While I’m backing the Under as my best bet, I do expect at least one player in this game to score: D’Angelo Russell. Russell’s name has been bandied about in trade rumors for a solid month now as the Lakers look to upgrade at the point guard spot, but that seems to have also coincided with by far the best stretch of his Lakers career.

Russell is averaging 27.8 points per game over his last five on true shooting of 69.7%. He’s been one of the more consistent engines of the Lakers offense, and with limited guard defense on Golden State, I like his chances to keep it rolling.

I’m also backing Davis to beat this prop on the boards. While the Warriors grade out as a good rebounding team overall, the playoffs made it painfully clear how small they are when going against the likes of AD.

Davis working over the Warriors inside is going to be core to the Lakers' game plan in this one. With six of his last seven games coming in above this mark, this is good value for the final leg of my SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lakers vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

The line for Saturday has been hovering between -1.5 and -2.5 in favor of Golden State.

Los Angeles has been about four points better than Golden State in terms of point differential in the past two weeks per Cleaning the Glass. All things being equal, tonight's contest should be closer to a pick'em.

However, what gives me pause about betting the spread for L.A. is the emergence of Jonathan Kuminga. The Warriors forward was a non-factor when in the playoffs against L.A. but provides a unique challenge to the Lakers with Cam Reddish out of the lineup. 

The total for Lakers vs. Warriors opened at 237.5 but has since climbed as high as 243.5.

The Warriors have one of the better offenses in the NBA over the past five games, which is why this number is as high as it is. 

But given the matchup difficulties created by Davis, I think those trends only create better value to expect a low-scoring affair. This line has also grown as much as six points since it opened, and betting against the public is an excellent way to increase one’s expected value.

Lakers vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Lakers are 8-13 against the spread in their last 21 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Warriors.

Lakers vs Warriors game info

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