LeBron James Odds and NBA Props: The King Picks His Spots Carefully

#WashedKing was the self-made moniker LeBron James created a few seasons ago when many thought Father Time was closing in on him.

While he’s far from washed, LBJ is currently the #LimitedKing to start the 2023-24 campaign (more on that below).

That makes the task a little more daunting as you size up the NBA odds tonight when the Lakers kick off their home slate against the Phoenix Suns.

Fear not, though, betting faithful: our NBA picks are riding with the King in our NBA player props covering LeBron James odds, and you should too.

LeBron James NBA prop picks

• Over 20.5 pts
• James Over 20.5 pts/James Over 1.5 TO/Davis Over 38.5 pts+rbs+ast

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

LeBron James NBA prop pick

LeBron Over 20.5 points (-110)

Talk about a rough start to the campaign. The Los Angeles Lakers opened their year watching the Denver Nuggets raise a title banner before getting run off the Mile-High floor.

Now, the Lakers get the latest super team iteration at Crypto.com Arena in the Phoenix Suns, featuring Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal (who may not be available with a bad back, but still). 

On top of that, it was revealed on opening night that LeBron James will be on a pitch count in the range of 28-30 minutes a night for the foreseeable future. It's a plan he’s apparently green-lighted as an attempt to keep the 38-year-old healthy throughout his 21st NBA season. Most importantly, the Lakers want him in peak form for the playoffs.

Last season, James played just five games where he logged 30 minutes or less, and the numbers weren’t great. LeBron topped this 20.5 points total just once in those instances. One of those was an L to these very Suns on April 7 when he put up 16 points, six rebounds, and six assists in 29 minutes.

However, context matters. Only one of those games came prior to the All-Star Game — and that was against the New Orleans Pelicans in the game heading into All-Star weekend. 

We also know that, prior to that NOLA game, James injured his foot against OKC on the same night he became the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. That injury would eventually sideline him for much of the home stretch. Opting against surgery, he returned with just eight games remaining in the regular season.

It was a rest and pain management plan for LBJ the rest of the way, a splendid march that ended in the West Finals.

Healthy LeBron looked good on opening night, shooting 10-for-16 for a team-high 21 points, tying for the team-best with eight boards and five assists in those 29 minutes.

The glaring issue was a problem James-led teams have faced many times over — his squad cratering offensively when he sits down.  LA was +7 with LBJ was on the floor against the Nuggets, but a dreadful -19 in the 19 minutes he sat.

LeBron needs to be uber-productive in his short stints, and in I'm confident he delivers just enough scoring for a betting win in his 2023 home opener.

Prop: LeBron James Over 20.5 points (-110 at bet365)

LeBron James NBA same-game parlay

LeBron James Over 20.5 points

LeBron James Over 1.5 turnovers

Anthony Davis Over 38.5 points + rebounds + assists

30% boost available

+575 +747 at bet365

On top of James’ scoring, let’s tack on a couple of wagers for our same-game parlay. Sticking with LeBron, in his post-game presser following the opening-night loss, he was most happy with his zero-turnover performance.

These nights don’t happen often for James, a high-volume ball-handler and LA’s leading shot-creator. James had only four zero-turnover efforts in 55 regular-season games a year ago. That’s two more than he had in the previous two seasons combined.

For a guy who's never averaged fewer than three turnovers a game in the course of 20 years, this is a classic regression to the mean spot.

And we’ll end with LeBron’s running mate, Anthony Davis, who’s got plenty to prove after a disastrous second half in Denver. Davis went scoreless on 0-for-6 shooting in the final 24 minutes.

That was after a big first half, where he scored 17 points and went toe-to-toe with Nikola Jokic. His line included eight rebounds and four assists.

With LeBron limited, Davis needs an immediate bounce-back game in a year where he’s supposed to — tell me you’ve heard this before — grab the torch and become a wrecking-ball unicorn for the Lakers.

This is a good spot for him. The ‘Brow laid waste to the Suns last year — and that was when they had a legit big man to defend him in Deandre Ayton.

Now? There are a lot of spare parts in Phoenix’s center-by-committee squad, the residual effect of committing monster capital to a three-headed star force. There’s simply no chance Jusuf Nurkic, Drew Eubanks, or Bol Bol will be able to contain AD.

And Phoenix doesn’t want KD going toe-to-toe with Davis all game, either. Not when he’s got a boatload of scoring duties with Beal likely out.

In his last three games vs. Phoenix, Davis has averaged 26 points, 17 rebounds, and 3.6 assists. If he’s motivated and (gulp) doesn’t get hurt, he should blast through that 38.5 points/rebounds/assists total.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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