Much like the Colts’ infamous departure from Baltimore in 1984, Luka Doncic was traded for Anthony Davis in the middle of the night under a veil of secrecy. The NBA world was rocked, to say the least, and the effects of the trade are still reverberating across the Association.
After his debut was pushed back due to injury, the Luka Doncic odds are out in full force as the Slovenian will make his long-awaited debut in purple and gold.
My top NBA picks for Monday, February 10 expect LA’s newest star to take advantage of a vulnerable Utah defense and shine as a scorer and playmaker alongside LeBron James.
How will Luka Doncic do in his Lakers debut?
- Best bet
Doncic 25+ points
(-190 at bet365) - SGP pick
Doncic 25+ points
Doncic 5+ assists
Hayes Over 13.5 pts + reb
(+210 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
How many points will Luka Doncic score in his Lakers debut?
Best bet: Luka Doncic 25+ points (-190 at bet365)
Luka Doncic’s scoring line is set at 26.5 for -130 odds. That line is certainly tempting, but I’m still not sure how many minutes he’ll play and what his role will be alongside LeBron James. James will likely defer to Luka as a scorer, but the pair will be playing their first game together, assuming James (listed as questionable) is available. There will be kinks to work out here.
James is handling a 32.1 usage rate, and Austin Reaves is at 24.7. Doncic is going to be the new face of the franchise and the team’s cornerstone for years to come, but it’s hard to predict what the rotation, minutes and usage will look like on Day 1.
I’m much happier betting this line down to 24.5 points and taking the shorter -180 odds for a bit of added security. Not counting his Christmas Day early exit, Doncic scored at least 25 points in 15 of 21 healthy appearances this season. He’s been one of the NBA’s best scorers since entering the league and should have no problem eclipsing this scoring mark, even while he and Bron work out their scoring and ball-handling responsibilities.
Doncic averaged 26 points and 8.5 assists in two matchups with the Utah Jazz this season, hitting the Over on this line once. On the season, the Jazz rank 27th in defensive rating, and the team has allowed the fourth-most assists.
Utah has been particularly generous to opposing PGs, allowing 25.8 points (third-most) and 10.3 assists (second-most) to the position this season. I expect Doncic to score at least 25 points and hand out at least five assists, which is something he’s done 12 times this season. I’m happy to play it safe with this scoring line and three-leg parlay, taking alt lines for Luka’s props to mitigate the unknowns in his first game as a Los Angeles Lakers player.
Luka Doncic same-game parlay (SGP) for his Lakers debut
Doncic 25+ points
Doncic 5+ assists
Hayes Over 13.5 pts + reb
30% boost available
Doncic finished with at least five assists in 18 of 22 games this season. One of the games in which he hit the Under was his final game played as a part of the Mavericks when he logged just 16 minutes on Christmas due to injury. Doncic is a prolific facilitator, but I’m betting his assists line down because he’s playing alongside LeBron James, who is averaging the third-most assists (9) of his illustrious career. Doncic should settle in as the team’s primary scorer and playmaker, but I’m not willing to bet on a monster assist total in his game played alongside James. There may be an adjustment period, but getting five assists is a safe endeavor here.
Jaxson Hayes has gotten a lot of criticism for his play over the years, and he’ll certainly be under the microscope after the Lakers’ failed attempt to trade for Mark Williams. Athletic, rim-running lob threats have done well with Doncic (Dereck Lively II, anyone?), and Hayes should too. He’s started each of the Lakers’ last five games and averaged 14.6 PRs. In eight games with at least 20 minutes played this season, Hayes has averaged 15.6 PRs and hit the Over six times. He hit the Over in all four home games played within 20 minutes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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