The Orlando Magic have been playing some of their best basketball as of late and that spells trouble for the Atlanta Hawks, who are set to be without All-Star guard Trae Young Sunday night.
Given Orlando’s play this season and Atlanta's struggles, the NBA odds have the Magic as a 1.5-point road favorite as the team looks to win its fourth straight game behind the play of All-Star Paolo Banchero.
Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Magic vs. Hawks on Saturday, February 25.
Magic vs Hawks odds
Magic vs Hawks predictions
When the Orlando Magic took Paolo Banchero with the No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, it was deemed potentially the wrong move with Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren enamoring so many fans.
Fast forward to his second season in the league and Banchero has a Rookie of the Year Award and is coming off his first All-Star appearance while putting Orlando in playoff contention.
He's played up to his draft selection and quickly become one of the best young players in the NBA, averaging 22.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists while shooting 45.6% from the floor this season. And despite coming off back-to-back games in which his shooting has been iffy at best, Banchero has the perfect opportunity to get back on track against an atrocious Atlanta Hawks defense.
The Hawks are allowing 123.9 points per game this season, 29th in the NBA, and rank last in the league in defensive rating. Opponents are shooting 50.2% from the floor against Atlanta, second worst in the NBA, and 38.7% from three, third worst in the league. The defense has been so bad that it’s completely stunted their season, even with the team averaging the fourth-most points per game in the league.
Sitting 10th in the East, Atlanta is going to need a miracle to slow Banchero with his combo of size, power, and court-stretching ability creating all kinds of mismatches for opposing defenses. To make matters worse for the Hawks, the defense has struggled against power forwards this year.
Quin Snyder’s squad is allowing the sixth-most points per game to power forwards in the NBA and the fourth-most three-pointers. At 6-foot-10, 250 pounds, Banchero can be a monster down low against a Hawks defense that’s giving up 56 points in the paint per game this season. He can also take advantage of this poor perimeter defense and utilize his 3-point ability (36.4% from deep on the season).
There’s a plethora of ways for Banchero to get after this defense and he should have plenty of opportunities with the sophomore star ranking 16th in usage rate among players who have played at least 40 games this season (29.1%).
It helps Banchero not only takes a team-leading 17.7 shots per game but has been getting to the free throw line a team-best 7.1 times per game.
My best bet: Paolo Banchero Over 22.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Magic vs Hawks same-game parlay
Paolo Banchero Over 22.5 points
Jalen Suggs Over 1.5 made threes
Dejounte Murray Over 23.5 points
It’s setting up well for Paolo to dominate the Hawks Sunday night, but a few of his teammates are poised to capitalize on the poor play of this defense too, including Jalen Suggs. The Magic’s starting point guard is hitting a team-leading two threes per game this season and shooting 38.5% from deep.
With the Hawks struggling to defend the perimeter, there should be ample opportunity for Suggs to splash a few long bombs. Atlanta is allowing point guards to hit an average of 3.24 threes per game this season, seventh most in the NBA.
To try and keep up with Orlando’s offense, the Hawks will need to lean on Dejounte Murray, especially with Young and his team-leading 29.2% usage rate out for the game. This season, Murray is averaging 21.5 points per game and shooting a career-high 6.2 threes whilst hitting 36% of them.
He’s had success against Orlando already this season, scoring 24 and 26 the last two times they played. He'll be in position to continue that level tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Magic vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
With the uncertainty around Trae Young’s status for this game, some books opened with the Hawks favored by as many as 2.5 points while others had the Magic at -1.5.
As the game inched closer to tip-off and Trae was ruled out, the Magic have settled in as 1.5-point favorites.
No team has been better ATS this season than Orlando, with Jamahl Mosley’s squad being an NBA-best 37-20 ATS. The Magic have shown no signs of slowing down either, going 9-3 ATS over the last 12 games. The Hawks have been the polar opposite, sitting last at 17-39 ATS.
The game total opened as high as 230 with it slowly dropping down to between 225.5 with the news Young won’t play. Atlanta has been one of the best Over bets in the league (31-24-1 O/U) this year thanks to its poor defense and explosive offense.
With the Magic having one of the best defenses in the league paired with a talented young offense, the team is 28-28-1 betting the Over this season but it has hit in six of its last seven games.
Magic vs Hawks betting trend to know
The Magic have covered the spread in 46 of their last 70 games (+19.70 units / 26% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Hawks.
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Magic vs Hawks game info
| Location: | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, February 25, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Southeast |
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