The NBA Cup semifinals pit the two best defenses tonight. The Oklahoma City Thunder lead the league in defensive rating, and only the Houston Rockets are within a bucket of Oklahoma City’s defensive success.
My Rockets vs. Thunder props predictions will trust those two defenses to deflate any player props in these free NBA picks before tip at 8:30 ET on Saturday, December 14.
Best Rockets vs Thunder props for tonight
Lu Dort Under 1.5 threes (+155 at bet365)
Dillon Brooks Under 1.5 threes (+145 at bet365)- Fred VanVleet Over 15.5 points (-105 at bet365)
Picks made on 12-14
Rockets vs Thunder player props for December 14
Prop bet #1: Lu Dort Under 1.5 made 3s
No one player on the Oklahoma City Thunder roster thrives from beyond the arc. This young core is built on length and athleticism, not necessarily on shooting. So the Rockets’ perimeter defensive strength will not be as much of an asset tonight as usual.
But it will still exist.
The Houston Rockets give up only 34.6 3-point attempts per game, No. 2 in the NBA. As impressive as that is, the shocking statistic is that the Rockets allow opponents to make just 34.0% of their threes, No. 5 in the NBA.
Taking the Under on Lu Dort’s 3-pointer prop is a thought entirely based on trusting Houston’s defense and enjoying the plus-money value of this Under. In that regard, it has the most value of all the Oklahoma City possibilities.
Prop bet #2: Dillon Brooks Under 1.5 made 3s
Much of the same logic can apply to fading Dillon Brooks tonight. It is as much an endorsement of Oklahoma City’s defensive designs as it is any doubt of Brooks. The Thunder are No. 3 in the NBA in opponents’ 3-point percentage, holding foes to just 33.6% from long range.
The length and athleticism of the Oklahoma City defense simply does not give up open looks from deep.
That should bother Dillon Brooks, in particular. Look, he is a hothead. The stakes of the NBA Cup semifinals very well may be too much for him to remain composed. And if he starts to devolve, his shot will not bail him out.
He has fallen short of this slim prop in 11 of 25 games this season, about an appropriate rate for this plus-money value, but facing the Thunder defense should increase these chances. With that in mind, this prop is simply underpriced.
Prop bet #3: Fred VanVleet Over 15.5 points
With these stakes at hand, let’s trust the most accomplished player on either of these rosters. He is the only player in this moment that has been on a bigger stage, winning the 2019 NBA Finals.
Fred VanVleet will not shy from this occasion.
He is averaging just 15.6 points this season, but tonight should demand a greater workload from VanVleet. Furthermore, he scored 38 points against the Thunder just two weeks ago.
VanVleet took 14 free throws that night, making 13 of them. Maybe he does not exceed a dozen again tonight, but VanVleet’s ability to attack the Oklahoma City defense and get to the line sets a high floor for his scoring output.
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