It’s been pretty clear the Phoenix Suns need Kevin Durant. The Suns are 1-9 without their star this season, including dropping their last three in a row.
Luckily for Phoenix, Durant says he’s back for tonight’s matchup against the Utah Jazz, making the Suns 7-point road favorites.
But he’s not the only starter the Suns are getting back as Jusef Nurkic will suit up for the first time since the end of November and my Suns vs. Jazz predictions like the Phoenix big man to have a big game.
Check out my NBA picks for this Western Conference matchup on Friday, Dec. 13.
Suns vs Jazz prediction
My best bet
Jusuf Nurkic double-double (+425 at bet365)
My analysis
Yes, the record for the Phoenix Suns without Kevin Durant is ugly, but it still isn’t great without Jusuf Nurkic either. The Suns are 3-5 without their starting center this season and you can tell they miss his presence in the interior when he’s out.
Nurkic is averaging 8.9 points and 9.9 rebounds per game this season and that is in just 24.1 minutes per game. He also has six double-doubles in his last 14 games and I think he’s set up well to get another one in tonight’s matchup against the Utah Jazz.
It’s been a tough stretch for the Jazz, who have just two wins in their last 12 games and defense has been their biggest problem. Utah enters this game ranked 29th in defensive rating and protecting the paint has been a problem. The Jazz rank 21st in opponent points in the paint per game and 29th in points per game allowed to opposing centers.
And while the Jazz are among the leaders in rebounding rate, their inefficient shooting creates opportunities for opposing rebounders like Nurkic.
On top of that, our Covers prop projections have Nurkic at 9.3 points and 9.6 rebounds for this game. So, instead of taking the Over on either of those, I’m going to take a shot that Nurkic records his seventh double-double of the season, which is on the board at +425.
Suns vs Jazz same-game parlay
Jusuf Nurkic 10+ points
Jusuf Nurkic 10+ rebounds
Suns moneyline
30% boost available
For today’s same-game parlay let’s split up the Nurkic stats for the double-double by going with him to get 10+ points and 10+ rebounds and let’s round it out with the Suns securing the dub tonight.
Kevin Durant is back. He and the Suns have been great when he is on the court. Durant is averaging 25.8 points on 53.6% shooting, including an impressive 44.9% from 3-point range while adding 6.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game.
So, it’s no surprise the Suns are 11-2 when he is playing. However, they are just 6-7 ATS in those games, so let’s play it safe by taking them on the moneyline here against a struggling Jazz team.
This same-game parlay can be boosted by 30% at bet365 tonight.
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Suns vs Jazz odds
Suns vs Jazz live odds
Suns vs Jazz opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix -5 | Utah +5
- Moneyline: Phoenix -205 | Utah +170
- Over/Under: Over 229 | Under 229
Odds courtesy of bet365
Suns vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Suns opened this Western Conference showdown as 5-point home favorites but once word got out that Kevin Durant would play, the line shifted even more in favor of Phoenix.
- While the Suns are 11-2 when Durant plays they are just 6-7 ATS and are just 1-3 ATS when favored by 7-points or more this season. The Jazz are 6-6 ATS this season when getting 7 or more points.
- The total also saw a shift with the injury news opening at 229 and moving up to 233.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- The combination of returning players for the Suns, and mediocre to bad defenses on both sides, a total this high makes sense. But Utah's offensive inconsistency (25th in offensive rating) has me staying away from a number this big.
Suns vs Jazz trend
The Jazz have only hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 63 games dating back to last season for -23.35 Units and a -30% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Jazz.
How to watch Suns vs Jazz
| Location: | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Friday, 12-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Arizona's Family Sports, KJZZ |
Suns vs Jazz latest injuries
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