The second of the NBA In-Season Tournament semifinals is a doozy as the Houston Rockets will take on the Oklahoma City Thunder for a spot in the NBA Cup Final.
These are two of the top teams in the Western Conference and two of the best defensive squads in the NBA, but my Rockets vs. Thunder predictions break down why this matchup will bring the noise and topple the total.
Here are my NBA picks for this NBA In-Season Tournament semifinal at T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas on Saturday, Dec. 14.
Rockets vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Over 216 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
With a 19-5 record and MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Oklahoma City Thunder are in the conversation for the best team in the NBA.
The Thunder lead the NBA in net and defensive rating, while their offense ranks seventh, led by SGA, who is averaging 30.2 points per game. All while the team has been dealing with a multitude of injuries.
Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets have achieved liftoff after an up-and-down start, winning 12 of their last 16 games. The Rockets rank fifth in ret rating in large part to ranking second in defensive rating.
So, this is arguably a matchup of the two best defensive teams in the NBA, and the total echoes that, sitting at a relatively low 216 for this NBA In-Season Tournament semifinal matchup.
But intense defense and low scoring is not how the games have played out when these two teams have met this season.
The Thunder won a Nov. 8 meeting with the Rockets at home 126-107, eclipsing a closing total of 221.5 by 11 points. The Rockets then responded with a 119-116 home win of their own just back on Dec. 1. Once again cruising over a similar total of 222. This time by 13 points.
Yet, we have a total that has been adjusted by five points. I don’t get it.
Yes, the Rockets offense can be inconsistent, but they have had success against OKC. Alperen Sengun, who is averaging 18.8 points per game this season, will be a handful for the Thunder who are still without Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Willimas.
It also helps that both of these teams are in the top half of the Association when it comes to pace of play.
I’m betting this NBA In-Season Tournament semifinal is exciting to start and finish, and I just don’t understand why this total is five points lower than a meeting from just a few weeks ago. Give me the Over.
Rockets vs Thunder same-game parlay
Over 216
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds
Alex Caruso Over 6.5 Points
The Thunder is really good at most things. Rebounding is not one of them. That’s in part because of injuries, but that doesn’t change the fact that OKC ranks a middling 15th in rebounding rate and is dead last in opponent rebounds per game.
The Rockets, on the other hand, are solid on the boards, ranking fifth in rebounding rate. So, not surprisingly, we’re adding a Houston rebounding prop to this same-game parlay. For that, let’s go with Jabari Smith Jr.
Smith is averaging 6.8 rebounds per game this season, but that is up to 7.4 over his last eight games. That includes hauling down a massive 14 boards in that Dec. 4 meeting against the Thunder.
Meanwhile, Alex Caruso has been an excellent fit for this Thunder team. A hard-nosed defender with non-stop hustle. And he’s had a hot hand since his return from a hip injury. Caruso is averaging 9.3 points while shooting 52.4% from the floor.
His point total is sitting at 6.5, which is a number he’s gone Over in four of his last six games overall. Add the Over to price this SGP at +500, which can be boosted by 30% at bet365.
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Rockets vs Thunder odds
Rockets vs Thunder live odds
Rockets vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Houston +5 | Oklahoma City -5
- Moneyline: Houston +170 | Oklahoma City -205
- Over/Under: Over 215 | Under 215
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder opened this NBA Cup Semifinal as 5-point favorites on a neutral site and have crept up slightly to -6 as of Saturday afternoon.
- Both the Rockets and Thunder have been solid bets this season. Houston is 16-9 ATS while OKC is 15-7-2 ATS. With these teams splitting the two meetings this season I'm staying away from the spread in this one.
- The total hit the board at 215 and has been bet up slightly to 216.
- Not only did the two previous meetings easily clear this number, the Rockets are 5-2 O/U over the last seven games while the Thunder have played over this number in five straight games.
Rockets vs Thunder trend
The Rockets have only hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 85 games dating back to last season for -15.55 Units and a -17% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Thunder.
How to watch Rockets vs Thunder
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Rockets vs Thunder latest injuries
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