The San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers have been abysmal on the defensive end, and with both teams enduring some tough stretches in December they could combine to produce a game filled with offense – which would be music to any bettor’s ears.
With both teams down some big names, under-appreciated guards like Jeremy Sochan and Anfernee Simons could have a chance to shine. We’ll examine below with plenty to like about both offenses in this matchup in Spurs vs. Trail Blazers predictions.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks as we dive for the Friday, December 13 showdown.
Spurs vs Trail Blazers prediction
My best bet
Over 225 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s been a tough run for the Portland Trail Blazers, sure, but at least a team which is constructed to be offensive-minded is starting to score the ball.
Portland has ranked 16th in offensive efficiency over the last two weeks, a massive upgrade considering it stands second-worst for the season, and over that span it’s scored around four more points per 100 possessions.
Unfortunately, the Trail Blazers’ defense has gone from bad to abhorrent, posting the worst defensive rating in the league by a decent margin during this stretch. However, the San Antonio Spurs should offer some reprieve as the only team in the league to come close to beating their 124.8 Defensive Rating over the past 14 days.
Portland’s newfound success offensively has mainly come from the mid-range, where it’s shot at the fifth-best clip over the last two weeks, though it’s been able to lean on its good size inside to shoot a solid 67.2% at the rim.
This is good news, considering the Spurs have been one of the worst teams in basketball at defending the mid-range and their brutal 3-point defense could be a liability here as well considering Portland has begun taking more shots from outside lately.
On the other hand, however, we can’t expect much at all out of this Trail Blazers defense, particularly if one of Deandre Ayton and Donovan Clingan – both listed as questionable – miss this one. Yes, the Spurs will be missing Zach Collins, Keldon Johnson, and Stephon Castle here, but they have more than enough firepower on offense to take advantage of this spot and most importantly their shooting chart has been spread evenly so they should be able to find the numerous soft spots in Portland’s defense.
The Spurs have brought their pace up in recent games, too, ranking ninth in the NBA, so this one should feature plenty of possessions considering the Trail Blazers have sat just outside the top 10 in that regard this season.
Spurs vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay
Over 224.5
Jeremy Sochan Over 7.5 rebounds
Anfernee Simons Over 2.5 threes made
The Portland Trail Blazers have been just outside the bottom five of the league in rebounding all season long, and the San Antonio Spurs – after a slow start – has quietly crept up towards the top 10 and over the last two weeks own the 12th-best rebounding rate at 50.7%.
Zach Collins is set to miss this game, and Victor Wembanyama hasn’t exactly been spending a ton of time inside this season, so that should open the door for another member of the Spurs to grab some available rebounds. My bet is for Jeremy Sochan to be that man, posting nine or more boards in six of his 11 games this season. Without Castle, he should receive plenty of run at point guard and could shatter this number.
Then, I want to exploit this Spurs defense on the arc, where they’ve allowed 39.9% of shots to fall in the past two weeks according to Cleaning the Glass. My plan of attack is to take a slightly pricey line on Anfernee Simons, who’s having a tough year shooting the ball but is still getting up plenty of shots from deep.
We can trust that Simons will get at least 30 minutes of run here, and dating back to late November he’s averaged 8.1 attempts from outside in his last eight games. If someone’s going to join the long list of names to torch the Spurs from deep, it’s going to be the guy who has been relentless in his pursuit of outside scoring.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Spurs vs Trail Blazers odds
Spurs vs Trail Blazers live odds
Spurs vs Trail Blazers opening odds
- Spread: San Antonio -3.5
- Moneyline: San Antonio -160
- Over/Under: Over 223 | Under 223
Odds courtesy of bet365
Spurs vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread touched four points after bouncing between 3.5 and three for most of the betting window, but has since dipped back to three in the afternoon on Friday.
- While the Spurs have commanded 68% of the spread bets, a firm 72% of the money is on the Trail Blazers to cover.
- The total made a steady move up one point to 224, and after a dip to 223 it shot up to 225 early on Friday.
- The Over has accounted for 55% of the tickets and a whopping 91% of the handle.
Spurs vs Trail Blazers trend
The San Antonio Spurs have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.40 Units / 49% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Trail Blazers.
How to watch Spurs vs Trail Blazers
| Location: | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
| Date: | Friday, 12-13-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FanDuel Sports Network - Southwest, KATU 2.2 |
Spurs vs Trail Blazers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
