The Sunshine State Rivalry will be in full force on Friday night as Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic travel to the Kaseya Center to take on Bam Adebayo and the Miami Heat, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find the best bet for this matchup.
Both the Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat have a record of 21-16 this season, and the winner will move into first place in the Southeast Division. When you share a division with the Atlanta Hawks, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets, it doesn't take much to be in first place in the division.
If you're not a fan of checking injury reports before an NBA game, this might be the game for you because I will lay out all the injuries, and you won't have to find them yourself.
There's a chance that Friday's bet is focusing on a future slam dunk champion in the NBA. Find out who that is in my free NBA picks and predictions for Magic vs. Heat on January 12th.
Magic vs Heat odds
Magic vs Heat predictions
Let's start with the Orlando Magic.
Wendell Carter Jr. is questionable, and the Magic will be without Franz Wagner, Gary Harris, and Jonathan Isaac. The good news for Magic fans is that Markelle Fultz recently returned from injury and they will get Joe Ingles back on Friday as well. The Magic need Ingles a lot more than you might think; he's been very efficient for them, creating offense in the pick-and-roll.
Now for the Miami Heat, which is more relevant for our bet: Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, and Kyle Lowry are all doubtful for Friday's game, while Caleb Martin is listed as probable.
Due to the abundance of injuries, oddsmakers have inflated Jaime Jaquez Jr.'s points prop from 16.5 to 17.5. While I get the initial reaction that his usage might increase in the absence of Herro, I actually disagree with the move.
Jaquez is a player who benefits from the spacing created by playing alongside players such as Butler and Herro. With so many key offensive weapons out for the Heat, I think this negatively impacts Jaquez at this stage of his career.
Not too many sportsbooks have a prop available on Jaquez's points prop, and they are withholding a lot of the Heat's props because of all the injuries. Pinnacle currently has the best price, but make sure to shop around for this Under bet before hitting the button. As more sportsbooks release their prices, you might be able to find a better number.
This bet is more of a lean for me than an official play, but Jaquez is projected for 16.5 points, which would allow us to price the Under 17.5 points at -139.
My best bet: Jaime Jaquez Under 17.5 points (-124)
Magic vs Heat same-game parlay
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Under 17.5 points
Heat team total Under 110.5
Paulo Banchero Under 27.5 points
To complement our best bet of Jaquez Under 17.5 points, I'm also rolling with the Heat to go under their respective team total in this matchup. It's not just that the Heat are missing key players, but they're missing players who generate a ton of offense for others. The Magic boast a top-three defensive rating in the NBA and feature multiple counters to Bam Adebayo on the interior.
For the Magic, I like the Under on Paulo Banchero's points prop because his total has been inflated due to his hot start in January. Banchero was trading at 19.5 earlier in the season, and now you're seeing 27.5. He will be without Wagner and a floor spacer in Harris, so expect Banchero to struggle to find space to operate against the Heat.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Magic vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
The Heat opened as a 3-point home favorite over the Magic on Friday at FanDuel, but we have seen that number drop to Heat -2, right around the time that Herro was tagged as doubtful on the injury report. Make sure to shop around for this spread, as some sportsbooks have dropped the line even further to Heat -1.5.
The total opened at 219.5 at DraftKings, and while it did jump to 221 at one point, the market was having none of it and bet it back down to the opening number of 219.5. The 219.5 is the consensus number in the market and appears to be where it will close.
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Magic vs Heat betting trend to know
The Magic have hit the first quarter game total Under in 39 of their last 65 games (+11.55 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Heat.
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Magic vs Heat game info
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Friday, January 12, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Florida |
Magic vs Heat latest injuries
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