The Phoenix Suns are sliding down the Western Conference standings since losing Kevin Durant to a freak ankle injury and try to stop a three-game losing skid when the Orlando Magic make their way to the Footprint Center tonight.
Durant’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time, with heavyweights like Sacramento, Golden State, and Milwaukee showing up on the schedule the past three games. Orlando is a welcome change in competition, with the Magic falling out of the play-in picture in the East with only one win (coming in OT) in their last four games.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference clash and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Magic at Suns on March 16.
Magic vs Suns best odds
Magic vs Suns picks and predictions
The Suns are clinging to the No. 4 seed in the West. The L.A. Clippers and Golden State Warriors are hot on their heels and the play-in cut off just 2.5 games behind fumbling Phoenix. With Durant still weeks away from returning, the Suns need to get right — right now.
All eyes are on star Devin Booker, who enters tonight’s game with a point total of 30.5 (Over -105). Booker has been pumping out the points whether Durant was in the lineup or not, averaging almost 35 points a game this month and topping his scoring Over/Under in six of those seven games.
He’s posted outputs of 28, 32, and 30 in the past three games against stiffer competition despite a downtick in 3-point success and fewer trips to the foul line. Booker is a collective 3-for-12 from distance during this skid after connecting on 16 of 30 from beyond the arc in the first four games this month.
Enter Orlando and its dwindling defense. So far this month, the Magic are the worse defensive team in the land and have allowed foes to score more than 125 points per game in their seven outings in March. That includes 132 points to the sad-sack San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday.
A big part of the problem is Orlando’s lackluster perimeter patrol, which has opponents taking and making a ton of triples. The Magic have allowed foes to fire at a 40% success rate from outside for an average of 15.3 3-pointers per game. They haven’t been much better inside the arc either, with rival teams knocking down 52% of their shots overall in that span.
That awful Orlando defense is just what Booker needs to find his touch from deep, keep the points piling up, and get Phoenix back in the win column. He’s been logging major minutes with Durant down and will see his share of touches and takes, going Over his point total once again.
My best bet: Devin Booker Over 30.5 points (-105)
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Magic vs Suns spread analysis
The host Suns opened as 7-point favorites and have since climbed to -7.5 at many books as of Thursday morning.
Phoenix owns a net rating of -10.8 the past three games, but Orlando doesn’t present the same level of competition as the Suns' recent foes. They fell to Milwaukee and Sacramento, two of the top teams in their respective conferences, and lost at Golden State, where the Warriors are a different animal.
The loss of Durant leaves Phoenix very thin beyond their starting rotation. In order to land the future Hall of Famer, Phoenix dealt away much of its depth and defensive prowess to Brooklyn. That’s left this roster to lean heavily on the starters while moving Torrey Craig to the first five. He’s nursing a sore foot but is expected to play tonight.
As for Orlando, it blew a perfect chance to win two in a row with a bad loss to San Antonio on Tuesday. The Magic gave up 132 points to a Spurs squad ranked 29th in offensive rating and couldn’t cover as 7-point road chalk. That drops Orlando to 1-4 ATS over the past five games.
The Magic are just 12-22 SU on the road with a net rating of -4.9 as visitors, going 18-15-1 ATS away from home. Phoenix is 18-15-1 ATS as a host, but 1-2 SU and ATS at home since the Durant deal.
Magic vs Suns Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under for this non-conference contest hit the board at 228.5 points and has bounced between that number and 227.5.
The Suns were able to overcome their defensive shortcomings with firepower when Durant was on the floor — or at least that’s what we saw in his lone full game for Phoenix. Since he went down, the Suns' offense has sputtered with an offensive rating of 109.1 during this losing skid. Those games produced a 1-1-1 O/U mark against higher totals than the one we’re dealing with tonight.
Orlando has also seen its defensive intensity slip in recent games, with the team’s defensive rating going from 113.9 to a league-worst 120.9 so far in March. The Magic have watched opponents fire away at a near 52% clip and put up an average of 125.4 points over the past seven games. That’s pumped out a 6-1 O/U mark in March. Orlando has also seen its pace rating spike in that stretch, jumping from 99.18 to 102.05 in March.
On the year, the Magic are 14-18-2 O/U on the road while the Suns own a 16-18 O/U count inside the Footprint Center. They are 4-2-1 O/U since the Durant trade and 2-1-1 O/U without him in the lineup.
Magic vs Suns betting trend to know
The Magic have gone 19-7 Over/Under against Western Conference opponents this season (73% Overs). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Suns.
Magic vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, March 16, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Florida, Bally Arizona |
