Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic will travel to the Target Center on Friday to take on Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for this matchup.
On Thursday, the NBA announced the reserves for the NBA All-Star game, and the Minnesota Timberwolves had Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns named to the Western Conference, while the Orlando Magic saw second-year player Paolo Banchero named to the Eastern Conference.
Edwards, Towns, and the entire Timberwolves roster are beginning to earn legendary status in the state of Minnesota, but my NBA picks and predictions for Magic vs. Timberwolves focus on a player who already has his jersey hanging in the rafters in Minneapolis.
Magic vs Timberwolves odds
Magic vs Timberwolves predictions
When I mentioned that our bet would focus on a player who has his jersey hanging in the rafters in Minneapolis, I didn't necessarily mean at Target Center. Jalen Suggs, a high school legend in the state of Minnesota, had his jersey retired at Minnehaha Academy last season when the Orlando Magic made the trip to play the Minnesota Timberwolves. Suggs was not only a tremendous point guard but a highly sought-after quarterback as well.
We just saw Anthony Black play in front of his home crowd against the Dallas Mavericks this week, and Jamahl Mosley even ran some plays for him on offense, and I'm sure Mosley will look to do the same for Suggs. While the extra motivation from having family and friends in the crowd is always an added boost to the bet, it's not the sole reason by any means as to why we're hitting the button here.
The Timberwolves' defense is anchored by Rudy Gobert, and they have positional size at several spots on the floor. The frontcourt of Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jaden McDaniels will pose a problem for a Magic offense whose bread and butter is using the size and speed of Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero to score at the rim.
With Gary Harris out for the Magic and the Magic lacking shooters in general, they will need someone to knock down shots to help space the floor, and Suggs will play a big role in that. Suggs should also be on the receiving end of some wide-open looks from beyond the arc, with Banchero and Wagner being met at the rim by Gobert.
I did bet on this prop this morning at 8.5 (-125), but the new number is 9.5 (+100). From an expected value perspective, there isn't much difference in these numbers. But what I will say is if you can go shopping and find an 8.5, I do prefer this number for the right juice. When you're betting on someone because you expect several attempts from behind the three-point line, it's just nice to have a number where 3 made threes clear the total compared to losing on the hook.
If both bets are showing the same expected value, I'd play the 8.5 just because of what we are attacking here with this prop from a basketball perspective. However, don't sacrifice your EV just to get an 8.5; the 9.5 (+100) is still a strong wager.
Suggs is projected to score 10.6 points on Friday against the Timberwolves, which allows us to price the Over 9.5 points at -129, but it is trading at +100 at DraftKings.
My best bet: Jalen Suggs Over 9.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)
Magic vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
I listed DraftKings as the best bet for Suggs at Over 9.5 (+100), but they won't allow you to include this prop in a same-game parlay. Therefore, since BetMGM also has Suggs trading at Over 9.5 (+100), I'm going to place our same game parlay there.
If Suggs is going to be shooting wide-open threes on Friday from a drive and kick, it will likely be coming from a pass by Wagner. The shot-blocking ability of Gobert is more disruptive to Wagner than Banchero, as Wagner's game involves more driving to the rim or shooting a three-pointer. Wagner could find himself stuck in the lane multiple times against this Timberwolves defense and kicking out to Suggs for a shot, which is why I'm pairing these props together.
I mentioned how this is a homecoming for Suggs playing in Minnesota on Friday, and if you don't know anything about Suggs, he is a fiery individual who is an excellent defender. I fully expect Suggs to be amped up for this game and flying all over the court, looking to be as disruptive as possible on the defensive end. A steal and a run-out for Suggs would help our points prop for him as well. That's why I'm adding Suggs to record 1+ steals to our same game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Magic vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
The Timberwolves opened as a 7-point favorite at FanDuel and are now trading as a 6.5-point favorite over the Magic on Friday. However, this line wasn't always moving towards the Magic. The Timberwolves did touch as high as an 8-point favorite before the market began to move the number toward the Magic.
The total opened at DraftKings at 213.5 and has dropped one point to 212.5. This game between the Magic and Timberwolves will feature two of the top defenses in the NBA, and this might be one of the lowest totals I have seen on the board all season. Make sure to shop around for the best number before placing a bet on the total; I'm seeing anywhere from 212 to 213 available in the market.
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Magic vs Timberwolves betting trend to know
The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.25 Units / 22% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Timberwolves.
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Magic vs Timberwolves game info
Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
Date: | Friday, February 2, 2024 |
Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | BSN, BSFL |
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