Mavericks vs 76ers Picks and Predictions: Dallas' D Keeps Philly in Check

After opening the James Harden era with four straight victories, the Philadelphia 76ers have alternated wins and losses to sit 7-3 with the superstar guard in the fold. On Friday, they welcome one of the hottest teams in the NBA to town in the Dallas Mavericks, who are 8-2 in their last 10 and have drawn even with the Utah Jazz for fourth in the Western Conference.

Can the Sixers break off a second consecutive win for the first time since the start of the month or will the Mavericks' surprisingly stingy defense hold them in check on their own court? Let's break it down in our NBA betting picks and predictions for Dallas vs. Philadelphia on Friday, March 18.

Mavericks vs 76ers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The 76ers opened as 4-point favorites. Depending on the book, that line can be found roughly at Philly -3.5. The total opened at 221.5 and has shifted slightly to 222 at the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs 76ers predictions

• Prediction: Mavericks +3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 221.5 (-105)
• Best bet: Under 221.5 (-105)

Predictions made on 3/17/2022 at 7:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mavericks vs 76ers game info

• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports-Philadelphia, Bally Sports Southwest

Mavericks vs 76ers betting preview

Key injuries

Mavericks: Reggie Bullock SG (Out), Marquese Chriss PF (Out), Theo Pinson SG (Out), Tim Hardaway Jr. SG (Out).
76ers: None.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in both the Mavericks' and 76ers' last five games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. 76ers.

Mavericks vs 76ers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

An absurd 30-point loss to the New York Knicks on March 9 notwithstanding, the Mavericks have been one of the best teams in the NBA since Luka Doncic returned from a lengthy absence to kick off the calendar year. Since January 1, Dallas is 26-8 straight up and has suffered back-to-back losses only once. Only the Phoenix Suns have been better on the whole.

Not to be outdone, the Philadelphia 76ers sit third in the East at 42-26 and have gone 7-3 in their 10 games since James Harden made his debut following a trade with the Brooklyn Nets. 

While the Mavericks are without some pieces, only Reggie Bullock's absence is of any recent consequence. This is very nearly a game between rosters playing at 100%. Yes, the Mavericks are coming off a narrow two-point victory over the Nets with Kevin Durant and... not much else, but a win is a win. This time around, whether it's because Dallas barely eked out a victory on Wednesday, the Sixers are healthy and at home, or the Mavs are playing their fourth of a five-game road trip, oddsmakers aren't liking Doncic & Co.'s chances.

But Dallas has been profitable all season long, going 38-30-1 ATS. Moreover, the Mavericks have also traveled well to the tune of a 20-14 record away from home. The Mavericks are rarely underdogs and rarely fail to cover when they are. They're 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs, which includes their 95-92 victory in Boston on March 13 against an excellent Celtics team.

By virtue of having Harden, the Sixers have been favored in almost every game they've played since the end of February. After going 3-0 SU and ATS after Harden's debut, Philly is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven. 

But while Harden was seen by many as the final piece of the puzzle in Philly, the Mavs have gotten a boost from an unlikely source coming out of the trade deadline. Point guard Spencer Dinwiddie is scoring 17.9 points per game during his 12-game tenure in Dallas. He's playing starters minutes and the team is 10-2 since the trade. He's more celebrated for his defensive prowess, but he's capable of hitting huge shots as well, such as his game-winning dagger against his former team, the Nets, last game. 

The Mavs grind games down, keep things close against even their toughest opponents, and are almost always in a position to win deep into the fourth quarter (again, ignore that weird Knicks booting). As such, we like the Mavs' chances at winning outright and would consider hitting the moneyline at +130, especially if the spread narrows anymore, but as long as the 76ers are favored by a handful of points, this is the safer route. 

Prediction: Mavericks +3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Mavericks play at the absolute slowest pace in the NBA, and that has helped result in a 24-44-1 Over/Under record this season. Doncic is running the show with 28.2 points per game, but the rest of the offense is distributed relatively evenly. Dallas is 43-26 SU despite scoring 106.7 points per game, which is the second-fewest in the West after the offensively inept Oklahoma City Thunder. 

One of the reasons Dallas has been able to win in spite of its low-octane offense is just how efficient its defense has been. Since January 1, only the Boston Celtics have exhibited a better defensive rating in the NBA than the Mavericks' 107.2.

You would think that the 76ers would be pouring in enough points with Harden in the rotation to hit the Over with consistency. Well, that hasn't exactly happened. Philly is 5-4 to the Over since Harden made his debut, and one of those came in an overtime win over the lowly Orlando Magic that would have gone to the Under had it not needed the extra frame.

Philly's no slouch on the defensive end, either. Since the beginning of the year, the Sixers rank seventh in defensive rating. They've dipped slightly to 13th during Harden's tenure, but it's not like they've cratered on that end of the floor. 

Prediction: Under 221.5 (-105)

Best bet

Oh, and while Dallas plays at the league's slowest tempo, you know who's next? That's right, Philadelphia. While that is reflecting the whole of the season, things haven't changed much since Harden arrived. In 10 games since his debut (he missed the team's loss against the Miami Heat), Philly's pace has stayed pretty much in line with its season number of 97.73 possessions per game.

The 76ers have won seven of the nine games Harden has played, so there's always a chance he goes off and wills them to a win over a tough opponent. But with how infrequently either team has hit the Over this season — especially Dallas — we're confident in hitting the Under again on Friday.

Pick: Under 221.5 (-105)

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