The Boston Celtics enter this one after taking a nice reality check to the chin in Chicago. The team needs defensive stopper Robert Williams back in the worst way, as their defense is prone to be exposed a bit without the rim-protecting master in the lineup.
The Dallas Mavericks enter this one after a tough 1-point loss to the Denver Nuggets. At 9-7, Dallas may not scare you with their record, but they've either beaten or competed seriously with all the "good" teams they've faced this season.
Boston will be no exception, and Tatum will have to get hot early and often in this one to contain the offensive arsenal of Luka Doncic. Find out where the betting value lies in our NBA picks and predictions below.
Mavericks vs Celtics best odds
Mavericks vs Celtics picks and predictions
In the NBA this season, the Boston Celtics have proven they can still make an incredible impact even without their suspended star head coach Ime Udoka.
The Celtics have built off everything they established last season and now look like a yearly championship contender. One of this team's strongest areas is their ability to hit the 3-point shot — starting with superstar Jayson Tatum.
Tonight should be an interesting battle, but it’s one the Celtics should win if Tatum indeed plays tonight. Everyone knows what Tatum is capable of on a nightly basis. His ability as a scorer on all three levels is incredible and often leaves teams clueless about how to defend him.
For the season, he's averaging 30.2 points per game and connecting on 35% of his 3-point shots. Tonight, look for him to lean in on his 3-point ability, as Dallas' defense is hovering around league average in opponent 3-point percentage.
Tatum is one of the premiere marksmen in the NBA today. He averages 3.4 makes from behind the arc per game for the season. That's over a point above his career average and would be the highest mark of his career.
This is partly because Tatum is also attempting the most threes per game for his career (9.6), an entire attempt more per game than last season. If Tatum wants to get out of this one with a victory, my gut tells me he will have to assert himself in a big way, including taking and making a lot of threes.
If Tatum can’t go, the Celtics have a deep roster and Jaylen Brown is plenty capable of taking over a game with his inside and outside ability as a scorer.
My best bet: Celtics moneyline (-186 at FanDuel)
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Mavericks vs Celtics spread analysis
On the season, the Boston Celtics are 9-8 ATS. Overall, they are nearly flawless at home, with a 6-1 record. The Celtics are tough to cover on many nights, ranking fifth in the Eastern Conference in fast break points (14.5). Tatum spearheads those efforts with 4.0 fast break points per game.
Dallas (4-11-1 ATS), which is last in the NBA in pace, will have to minimize turnovers should it wish to cover today. Boston is an intelligent team, and while the defense isn't as dominant without Robert Williams on the court, it matches up well with a Dallas team that doesn't possess any significant scoring options in the paint.
The Mavericks will have to rely heavily on Doncic — as they always do — to keep this one close. They've elevated their level of play against all the assumed playoff teams they've faced this year. That's a good sign for this team, even with a few questionable losses to the Thunder, Wizards, and Magic.
Boston is coming off a disappointing loss at Chicago, where they struggled to maintain DeMar DeRozan, who burned them for 28 points. Doncic is on a different level than DeRozan as a player and will likely make this one a nail-biter.
Mavericks vs Celtics Over/Under analysis
Boston scores the second-most points in the entire NBA per game (119.4). Tatum and star mate Jalen Brown have settled in as maybe the most formidable one-two punch in the entire NBA. Dallas has one of the better defenses in the league this year, evident by their fifth-ranked defensive rating, but it'll be tough to slow down the Boston duo.
On the other hand, Boston is around league average in the opponent's points per game department, which could spell trouble when facing perhaps the most unstoppable offensive force in the entire league. This could be a close call, but with such firepower on both sides of the ball, the Over feels likely here.
Mavericks vs Celtics betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in the Mavericks' last seven games following a straight-up loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Celtics.
Mavericks vs Celtics game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 23, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
