Mavericks vs Clippers Picks and Predictions: Shorthanded Offenses Struggle to Score

The Los Angeles Clippers are in desperation mode when they host the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday. 

Los Angeles is mired in a six-game losing skid and dropping like a stone in the Western Conference standings, thanks to inconsistencies on both sides of the ball. Star forward Paul George remains out of action, leaving L.A. to juggle lineups in hopes of cracking the scoring slump.

Dallas has cooled after a hot streak to end the 2022 calendar by splitting wins and losses in its past four games and managing the workload of Luka Doncic, who sat out Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma City — the second of back-to-back games. He’s questionable for tonight but could give it a go on a tender ankle.

I run down the spread and total for the Western Conference contest and give my best NBA betting picks and predictions for the Mavericks vs. Clippers on January 10.

Mavericks vs Clippers best odds

Mavericks vs Clippers picks and predictions

The early move on this Over/Under bumped the total from 219.5 to as high as 222 points, with the market move optimistic about Luka Doncic’s status.

This total not only reflects the Mavericks potentially having their offensive standout back, but also the Clippers’ defensive downtick. Los Angeles ranked about among the elite on defense before this six-game slide, in which its face planted to 29th in advanced defensive rating.

Coach Tyronn Lue has been doing some major tinkering with his rotation in hopes of correcting the course not just on the defensive end, but finding a mix of scoring as well. After getting run off the court by the Hawks in the first half of Sunday’s game, he knows which lineup not to roll out if the Clips want to keep this matchup with the Mavs close.

Los Angeles will go back to what has worked on defense tonight, especially a tight perimeter defense that gets its heels above the 3-point arc and protects against the 3-ball. The Clippers own the lowest 3-point percentage allowed in the NBA and amp up that defensive intensity at home, where they check visitors to only 10.5 makes from deep per contest.

Doncic’s return absolutely gives the Mavs’ offense a go-to weapon, but Dallas is missing some key cogs around him as well. Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, and Josh Green are all sidelined, which has stretched the Mavericks' depth. 

Dallas is getting only 26.3 points per game off the bench since the calendar flipped to 2023 — a significant drop off from the 36.6 points from the reserves pumped out in the first three months of the schedule.

In terms of this matchup, the Mavs run one of the slower paces on offense (96.52 pace rating 29th) while the Clippers don’t shy away from a methodical attack either (21st in pace rating), especially if Lue leans on the bigger lineup to bolster the defense rather than run the three-guard sets that got waxed by Atlanta on the weekend.

Los Angeles' offense isn’t overwhelming anyone at this point, with the backcourt a mess and George out of action. The team sits 27th in offensive efficiency on the year and Dallas is no pushover on defense either, holding foes to 111 points on 48% shooting. 

Their November meeting (103-101) boasted a slower pace rating of 94.50 and finished below the closing total of 211.5. I expect another grinder of a game, with a desperate Clippers team turning to defense to snap their slump.

My best bet: Under 222 (-102 at Pinnacle)

Mavericks vs Clippers spread analysis

This spread opened Los Angeles as 2-point home favorites with Doncic’s status in question, but the early morning market move is slimming that spread to L.A. -1 (one book at pick'em), indicating early action is betting Dallas based on the belief that Doncic will play.

Luka sat out the second of back-to-back games on Saturday — with the team falling to the Thunder — but has now had two full days off to rest his injured ankle. If you look at the games he’s missed this season, all were the second of two straight, so if this market moves toward the Mavs is any indication, Doncic will suit up against Los Angeles.

Should Luka get the green light, we’ll likely see this spread swing over the fence and have Dallas favored on the road against the struggling Clippers. Los Angeles has lost six in a row and head coach Tyronn Lue appears grasping for straws, shaking up his lineups in hopes of sparking a turnaround from his team.

Not having George has been a burden for this offense as he’s a player who can create scoring chances for himself, but the loss of guard Luke Kennard is just as impactful. Lue has mixed big and small lineups, unable to get consistent results on either end of the floor. 

Dallas has also dealt with inconsistency since the New Year, going 2-2 straight up in its last four outings in 2023. However, resting Doncic in the loss to the Thunder is an easy excuse for this split. His presence on the floor makes life so much easier for every other player, getting inside and drawing attention to create space for the Mavericks' wing players.

These teams clashed back in November, with the Mavs winning 103-101 but failing to cover as 6.5-point home favorites against an L.A. squad playing without Kawhi Leonard and losing Kennard less than three minutes into the game.

Mavericks vs Clippers Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under total opened at 219.5 points and has also seen early morning movement with Doncic’s status becoming clearer. The number shot up to as high as 222 points by 9 a.m. ET.

Doncic not only can get his own shots and create points in isolation, but his presence gives the Mavericks’ shooters so much extra space to hit from the perimeter.

This game is an interesting matchup between one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the NBA (Dallas 14.7 threes made/game) and the premier perimeter defense (Clippers allow just 34.2% success from beyond the arc). Without Doncic, the Dallas offense doesn’t have that kick starter in an otherwise plodding attack that sits among the lowest in pace rating.

The Clippers have had mixed results on defense. Against Atlanta on Sunday, Lue started with a big lineup and limited the Hawks to only 25 points on 44% shooting in the first 12 minutes. Then he swapped in a small rotation and Atlanta took full advantage with 41 points on near 71% success from the floor in the second quarter.

Overall, Los Angeles is one of the better defensive clubs in the league and allows the fourth-fewest points per game, which has trickled down to a 17-25 Over/Under mark on the year. But during this six-game slide, L.A. has watched its defensive rating dip to 29th in the league after ranking No. 4 in that advanced stat for the majority of 2022.

The Mavericks are also a sound defensive ball club, with their slower pace limiting opponents’ possessions. Dallas, which is 24-17 O/U on the year, is No. 12 in advanced defensive rating but is 6-2 O/U in its last eight outings.

Mavericks vs Clippers betting trend to know

The Clippers are 3-17 Over/Under at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Clippers.

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