Mavericks vs Grizzlies Picks and Predictions: Mavs Stop Grizz in their Tracks

Friday night features a matchup between two of the hottest teams in the Association, both hailing out of the Western Conference.

The Grizzlies are winners of 11 straight games but will be in a tough scheduling spot as this marks their fifth game in seven days. The Mavericks had a six-game winning streak snapped Wednesday in New York but have been running red-hot since Christmas.

Will the Grizzlies continue their franchise-best winning streak, or will the Mavericks play spoiler?

Check out our NBA picks and predictions for the Mavericks vs. Grizzlies on Friday, January 14 to find out.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Memphis has already taken some money, moving the line from -3 at open to -3.5 and -4 depending on which book you’re using. The total opened at 218 but has been bet down to 216.5 at the time of this writing. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies predictions

• Prediction: Mavericks +4 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 216.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Mavericks +4 (-110)

Predictions made on 1/14/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies game info

• Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Friday, January 14, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Mavericks vs Grizzlies betting preview

Injuries

Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis PF (Out), Isaiah Thomas PG (Out), Willie Cauley-Stein C (Out).
Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks SG (Out), Steven Adams C (Out), Killian Tillie PF (Out), Yves Pons SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Grizzlies.

Mavericks vs Grizzlies picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

This is undoubtedly a premier matchup to sit back and watch on a Friday night. It’s tough to pick between both of these teams, as both have been red-hot in recent weeks. That being said, we see a notable scheduling advantage for the Mavericks that has us looking in their direction.

The Grizzlies are in the midst of a franchise-best 11 game winning streak and have clearly found their groove. Ja Morant has taken the next step in his progression toward superstar status, averaging 27.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 6.4 assists in his last 10 games. 

For as good as the Grizz have been playing, the Mavericks aren’t far behind. Dallas has won six of its last seven games, and they haven’t been against cupcakes either. With notable wins over Golden State and Chicago during the recent hot streak, it’s evident that the changes Dallas has made have come to fruition. Jalen Brunson has looked excellent in the starting lineup and has gelled nicely with Luka Doncic since the latter returned from injury.

Since Christmas, Memphis sports the second-best net rating in the league. Dallas isn’t far behind, with the third-best net rating in that span.

Now that we’ve established that the current iteration of these teams are more evenly matched than they may first appear on paper, let’s examine the scheduling dynamic. This is supposed to be a scheduling loss for the Grizzlies, who will be playing in a back-to-back. It’s their fifth game in seven days, and their third game in four days. 

Memphis should be exhausted while Dallas should be fresh. The Mavericks have played just once since Sunday, and should be fully focused and making up ground in the Western Conference standings. 

Prediction: Mavericks +4 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This is a matchup between two teams with contrasting styles. The Grizzlies like to get out in transition and play fast, ranking in the Top 10 in pace over the last two weeks. The offense has been clicking lately, averaging 116.4 points over the last 10 games. Despite the scheduling disadvantage, they should continue to put up points.

The Mavericks, on the other hand, have been playing at a Bottom-5 pace since Christmas. That being said, they appear to have found their shooting stroke from three. After going cold to start the season, Dallas has shot 36% from deep over the last ten games. It’s not a coincidence that the Mavericks have averaged 107.9 points per game in that span despite playing at a snail’s pace. Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson have combined in the starting lineup to make this a dangerous offense once again.

We think both teams will be able to score in this matchup. Memphis has been a machine offensively while Dallas has found its footing thanks to the combination of Doncic, Brunson, and the long ball. We’ll take the Over.

Prediction: Over 216.5 (-110)

Best bet

It hurts to pick against a team on a franchise-best winning streak, but we have to follow the numbers instead of our hearts. 

Dallas has been playing better of late and has gone under the radar, while Memphis has garnered publicity thanks to the winning streak. We think this creates value with Dallas. The public should continue to bet the Grizzlies throughout the day, so a better line on Dallas may be had closer to tip-off.

Pick: Mavericks +4 (-110)

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