Mavericks vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Luka's Hot Hand Trumps Miami

The new-look Dallas Mavericks head to South Beach riding a Luka hot streak. Will that be enough to propel Dallas to an upset of the East-leading Miami Heat?

Find out with our free NBA picks and predictions for the Mavericks at the Heat on February 15, with tip set for 7:30 ET.

Mavericks vs Heat odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Heat opened as three-point home favorites late Monday night, and after a momentary drop to -2.5, that returned to -3.0 by sunrise before ticking up to -4.0 by mid-morning. The total began the cycle as high as 210.0 before falling to 208.5 early Tuesday morning. It bounced back up to 209.5 at some books throughout the morning, but then returned to settle at 208.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Heat predictions

• Prediction: Mavericks +4.0 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 208.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Doncic Over 29.5 points (-118)

Predictions made on 2/15/2022 at 2:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mavericks vs Heat game info

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Tuesday, February 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Southwest

Mavericks vs Heat betting preview

Key injuries

Mavericks: Davis Bertans PF (Probable), Spencer Dinwiddie PG (Probable), Trey Burke PG (Questionable), Reggie Bullock SG (Doubtful), Theo Pinson SG (Out), Marquese Chriss PF (Out), Tim Hardaway Jr. SG (Out).
Heat: Jimmy Butler PF (Questionable), Caleb Martin SF (Questionable), Tyler Herro SG (Out), Victor Oladipo SG (Out), Markieff Morris PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in Dallas’ last five games, as well as 3-2 in Miami’s last five. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Heat.

Mavericks vs Heat picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

If there is the slightest chance Jimmy Butler is out or limited tonight, this number is inflated. He has not missed a game yet in February, so he may simply be due for a night off, but a shoulder injury is what has him officially on the injury report. Without Butler, Miami is notably worse defensively, a 111.7 defensive rating in 19 games without him compared to 107.6 in 38 games with him.

The likelihood is Butler plays. This is Jimmy Butler, after all. But he took only 11 shots in Saturday’s win against the Nets, a notable drop from his 14.6 field goal attempts per game this season. And he hit only four of them, 36.4%, compared to his season average of 49.1. It’s not hard to imagine Butler’s shoulder is bothering him.

Either way, Dallas is surging. The instinct may be to knock the Mavs for falling off after their defense in January carried them into home-court-advantage range, but going 6-4 in its last 10 is hardly something to knock when one of those losses came in the back half of a baseball-esque two-game series against the Clippers, another was in overtime and a third came to a scrappy squad known as the Warriors.

Furthermore, tonight should be the debut of D?vis Bert?ns and Spencer Dinwiddie in Dallas uniforms after their trade from the Washington Wizards. Teams this season and in years past have often shown some exuberance in their first game following a trade-deadline makeover. The new pieces bring energy and variety to an otherwise interminable season.

That kind of intangible does not show up in bookmaking, understandably so, but it should be factored into handicapping.

Prediction: Mavericks +4.0 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

With or without Butler, these are two defensive behemoths of late. In the last 31 days, they rank No. 2 (Dallas) and No. 4 (Miami) in team defensive rating. The Heat have relied on that strength all season, but it was the arrival of its defense that propelled the Mavericks back into contender status.

Dallas has played 57 games thus far this season. In the first 28, its defensive rating was 109.3, per statmuse.com. In its last 29, that fell to 106.6.

Bookmakers have absolutely adjusted with the Mavericks’ improvement, but when facing a fellow Top-5 defense, it is possible the total simply cannot be set low enough. In the last 31 days, only 13 games have had totals lower than this one, two of them involving Dallas and three involving Miami. Only so much can be gleaned from either set, with the 13 games hitting the Over seven times, and the five including one of these teams doing so three times.

But the point is, books will go only so low when setting a total, and usually, a lower number has to include a woeful offense, namely the Knicks or the Thunder (showing up nine times in those 13 games, including once against each other). They rank No. 25 and No. 30, respectively, in offensive rating in the last month, while the Mavs rank No. 15 and the Heat come in at No. 18. With even just those average offenses, bookmakers fear a floor for the total.

And that floor is higher than it should be with these defenses.

Prediction: Under 208.5 (-110)

Best bet

Disclaimer: None of this is meant as Kristaps Porzingis slander. When healthy, he can be a joy to watch and change games in a number of ways. But he has not been healthy of late, and clearly, he and Luka Don?i? never meshed on the court.

Now to the handicap: Luka has averaged 36.6 points per game since Jan. 29, an eight-game stretch. What happened on Jan. 29? Luka played alongside Porzingis for the last time.

Since then, he has scored at least 30 points in seven of eight games, the lone exception a triple-double against the Hawks. Don?i? has returned to the peak of his powers, and there is little reason to think that will change when Bert?ns and Dinwiddie add some more spacing around him.

Pick: Don?i? Over 29.5 points (-118)

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