The reigning Eastern Conference champs are making sure everyone remembers just who they are with a late-season surge. The Miami Heat ride a three-game winning streak into Tuesday’s home date with the Dallas Mavericks.
The Heat sit sixth in the Eastern Conference but have a real chance of finishing as high as fourth if they continue their winning ways. Miami has won seven of its last nine outings, going 6-2-1 against the NBA betting spreads. The Mavericks are also sixth in the West and chasing for the No. 5 spot.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Heat on May 4.
(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to Tuesday evening's news that Jimmy Butler would be out for the Heat vs. the Mavericks with an illness.)
Mavericks vs Heat odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonMiami landed on PointsBet USA's odds board as 3.5-point chalk overnight, moved up to -4 and down to -3 this morning, then spent all afternoon at -3.5, where the line sits at 5 p.m. ET. The Heat are attracting 53 percent of bets and 62 percent of money on the spread. The total bounced around from 214.5 to 216.5 to 215.5 and is now 216, with 66 percent of bets on the Over and 52 percent of cash on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMavericks vs Heat betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis F (Out), Maxi Kleber F (Questionable).
Heat: Jimmy Butler G (Out), Tyler Herro G (Out), Victor Oladipo G (Out), Andre Iguodala F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 19-7 in Mavericks’ last 26 games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Heat.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Momentum can mean everything at this time of the year and Miami is oozing it like South Beach oozes coconut tanning oil.
The Heat own an average margin of victory of 6.4 points per game during this nine-game frame, and while a few of those wins came against some cupcake opponents, Miami started this stretch with a win over Brooklyn and has held up against the oddsmakers’ expectations, despite missing Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo.
Much like its run to the 2020 NBA Finals, Miami’s success is anchored in defense. The Heat have allowed only 104.8 points per game in this nine-game stretch and face a Dallas offense still figuring out its identity this late in the schedule.
The Mavericks aren’t the record-setting scoring attack of last season and have watched their production go up and down over the past month, coming off a 99-point “down” performance in a loss to Sacramento on Sunday in which the Mavs made just 6 of 35 from beyond the arc. Those shortcomings from distance can manifest themselves into scoring lulls for Dallas, which has a bad habit of extended droughts on offense.
This Miami defense is not the squad you want to try and get right against. And with Kristaps Porzingis listed as doubtful, the Heat can focus on stopping Luka Doncic, who’s logged a lot of minutes as he lugs the Mavs to the finish line.
PREDICTION: Miami -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Not having Porzingis on the court takes the bite out of Dallas’ vaunted pick-and-roll attack.
The Mavericks are among the best in points per play in both production from the ball hander and screener options in those sets. But without the 7-foot unicorn creating mismatches off the pick-and-roll, the offense can’t expose their foes’ soft spots.
Even if Porzingis grits it out, Miami enters as one of the better pick-and-roll defenses in the NBA – ranked No. 2 vs. ballhandler and No. 5 vs. screener – and also have the shutdown defenders to matchup on Doncic in isolation. The Heat will toss a mix of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo at the Mavs superstar when the shot clock starts ticking down.
Miami’s offense will also take some of the gas out of Dallas’ tank, playing one of the more methodical paces in the NBA. During this nine-game tear, the Heat have required opponents to wear a CPAP machine, playing at a snore-inducing 94.72 pace rating – lowest in the NBA – and posting just over 111 points per contest.
The Heat may be on a six-game Over run but will keep the Mavericks in check and stay below the total tonight.
PREDICTION: Under 216 (-110)
Player prop pick
With injuries to Herro and Oladipo leaving Miami thin in the backcourt, veteran guard Goran Dragic has stepped up his offensive efforts.
Dragic averaged almost 12 points per game in April and had a pair of 18-point efforts in his last three games, including Sunday’s victory over Charlotte.
His minutes have spiked since Herro went down, tallying 30, 29, 28 and 35 minutes of floor time in his last four outings. Tuesday’s point total is set at 13.5 which is pretty much right on his scoring average over the last nine games.
PREDICTION: Goran Dragic points Over 13.5 (-110)
Mavericks vs Heat betting card
- Miami -3.5 (-110)
- Under 216 (-110)
- Goran Dragic points Over 13.5 (-110)
Picks made on 5/4/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET
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