As the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings fight to make the NBA playoffs, and stave off the NBA Play-In Tournament odds, the teams have two games against each other in a row that will be key in the race for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference.
The NBA odds have the Kings as a slight 1-point favorite at home as they try to slow down MVP candidate Luka Doncic. Luckily for Sacramento head coach Mike Brown, he has a triple-double machine of his own to lean on.
Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Kings on Tuesday, March 26.
Mavericks vs Kings predictions
My best bet: Domantas Sabonis Over 42.5 points, assists, and rebounds (-120 at bet365)
When the Orlando Magic took Domantas Sabonis with the 11th overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft and immediately flipped him to the Oklahoma City Thunder, nobody could have known he would become one of the most well-rounded players in the NBA.
The Gonzaga product spent just one season with the Thunder before becoming an All-Star with the Indiana Pacers and eventually the NBA’s most underrated player with the Sacramento Kings.
On Monday night, Sabonis recorded his 25th triple-double of the season, joining the likes of Oscar Robertson, Wilt Chamberlain, Russell Westbrook, and Nikola Jokic as the only players with at least 25 in one season. Despite the 27-year-old being part of rare air, he wasn’t even named an All-Star this season, and head coach Mike Brown mentioned that after the game.
“Shout out to Domas. What a job,” Brown said Monday. “What a phenomenal, phenomenal year he’s having. Obviously, he should have been an All-Star. Obviously, he should be talked about for first, second, third All-NBA. And he should be in the MVP discussions with the way that he’s playing.”
While Sabonis was snubbed on the individual accolade, he still has a chance to lead his team and beat out Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks for the team honor of clinching the No. 6 seed, and a clearer path to the NBA playoffs.
For the Kings to take down Dallas, Sabonis will need to be at his best and he’s set up well to stuff the stat sheet in the process. While his 42.5 points, assists, and rebounds total may seem high, this is a Mavericks defense that’s struggled with big men.
Not only is Dallas allowing the 10th-most points per game in the NBA (116.9), but it’s been one of the poorer rebounding teams in the league. The Mavericks are just 22nd in rebounds per game (42.5) and allow the sixth-most in the NBA to opponents (45.1). They aren’t great at stopping assists either — allowing the ninth-most per game (27.7).
That’s part of the reason Sabonis is poised for a big performance, the other reason? Dallas allows the fifth-most points per game to centers in the league (24.34), the 10th-most rebounds (15.1), and allows them to chip in 4.27 assists.
Mavericks vs Kings same-game parlay
Domantas Sabonis Over 42.5 points, assists, and rebounds
Luka Doncic Over 33.5 points
PJ Washington Over 10.5 points
While Sabonis is busy carrying the Kings, Luka Doncic will be doing the same for the Mavericks. He leads the NBA with 34 points per game this season and has had at least 34 in nine of his last 15 games.
Supporting Doncic will be power forward PJ Washington, who isn’t known for scoring, but has an enticing matchup against the Kings. While Washington is averaging just 10.5 points per game in Dallas, Sacramento allows the fourth-most points per game to power forwards this season (25.62).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mavericks vs Kings odds and trends
Mavericks vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +1.0 (-102) | Sacramento -1.0 (-108)
- Moneyline: Dallas +103 | Sacramento -114
- Over/Under: Over 234 (-106) | Under 234 (-106)
Mavericks vs. Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Kings opened as a 1.5-point favorite and the line has since shifted a half-point in either direction, depending on the book.
- The Kings are 36-34-1 ATS this season and have covered in three of their last four while the Mavericks are 40-31 ATS and have covered in eight of their last nine.
- The total opened as high as 237.5 and has since come down to between 234 and 234.5.
- Sacramento is 33-35-3 betting the Over this season and Dallas is 33-37-1. Neither team has hit the Over in its last four games.
Mavericks vs. Kings betting trend to know
The Mavericks have covered the Spread in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Kings.
Mavericks vs Kings game info
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 26, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
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