The Thunder bounced back nicely from their NBA Cup Final debacle with a win over Orlando on Thursday. OKC is back in action Friday for the second leg of their back-to-back Florida set when they visit Kaseya Center and the Miami Heat.
My Thunder vs. Heat predictions expect Jimmy Butler to crash the glass against a weak Thunder interior defense. Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on Butler’s rebound prop on Friday, December 20.
Thunder vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s no secret that the Oklahoma City Thunder have been crushed on the glass this season. The Thunder have allowed the second-most rebounds per game to opponents (47.7), surpassed only by the lowly Washington Wizards (48.6).
The Thunder rank 29th in defensive rebound percentage and 22nd in offensive rebound percentage, which sets Jimmy Butler up nicely in a highly favorable spot.
Butler is averaging 6.1 rebounds per game this season, which is his most since the 2020-21 campaign. He’s also grabbing a career-best 2.7 offensive rebounds per contest, and he can take full advantage of a Thunder team that’s been generous to opponents on the offensive glass.
Butler has hit the Over on this line in just eight of 19 games this season, but he’s been hot as of late. He’s grabbed at least six rebounds in three of his last five games, including a 19-rebound effort in his last outing.
Bam Adebayo will be patrolling the paint for the Miami Heat in this one, and I expect him to have a nice showing as a scorer and rebounder. But there’s plenty of rebounds to go around for both Butler and Bam tonight.
Miami’s frontcourt depth is shallow, so Butler should be active as a rebounder alongside his teammate. Over the last two games, the Thunder gave up double-digit rebounds to each of Wendell Carter Jr. and Goga Bitadze, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez combined for 28 against them in the NBA Cup Final.
I expect Butler to stay aggressive at home and take advantage of a Thunder team playing the second leg of a back-to-back set and its third game in four days.
Thunder vs Heat same-game parlay
Jimmy Butler Over 5.5 rebounds
Bam Adebayo double-double
Isaiah Hartenstein Over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists
Adebayo’s double-double streak was snapped at four when he failed to record one in his last game out. He’s hit the mark in 14 of 24 games this season, and I expect him to start a new streak tonight against a Thunder team that’s one of the most generous in the Association to opposing rebounders.
Bam is posting 16.2 points and 10.3 rebounds per game this season, and he’s finished with double-digit points in 20 of those and double-digit rebounds in 15. I fully expect him to take advantage of this favorable matchup and go for at least 10/10 at home.
I’ll keep betting Isaiah Hartenstein combo props until the line comes up. His PRAs line has hovered between 25.5 and 27.5 over his last three, and that number is far too low not to bet the Over.
He’s averaging 12.8 points, 12.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game this season and has hit the Over in nine of 12 appearances. Hartenstein has gone for at least 24 PRAs in 11 of 12 and provided exactly 26 PRAs in one more contest.
This isn’t the best matchup for him, but it’s far from an intimidating one either. As OKC’s only healthy center, he should see big minutes and plenty of production.
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Thunder vs Heat odds
Thunder vs Heat live odds
Thunder vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City +1 (-110) | Miami -1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -105 | Miami -115
- Over/Under: Over 217.5 (-110) | Under 217.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oklahoma City is 6-2-2 ATS across its last 10 and 16-8-3 on the season.
- Miami has covered in six of its last 10 but is just 11-13 ATS through 24 games.
- The Thunder have hit the Under in four straight, and the team is 11-16 to the Under this season.
- The Heat have gone Over in four of the last five and have hit the Over in 14 of 24 games.
Thunder vs Heat trend
Oklahoma City won both games against Miami last season after the Heat won six in a row against the them. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Heat.
How to watch Thunder vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 12-20-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN, TSN |
Thunder vs Heat latest injuries
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