The Los Angeles Lakers are slowly trying to turn the ship around, taking two of their last three ahead of Thursday’s clash on the road with the Sacramento Kings, but there’s still some reasonable doubt about this team’s ability to score the ball.
We’ll explain just how difficult that will make this one in our Lakers vs. Kings predictions, highlighting Sacramento’s recent offensive outburst and its excellence in what’s been the Lakers’ softest spot defensively.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks for Thursday, December 19.
Lakers vs Kings prediction
My best bet
Kings -5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Lakers have taken two out of their last three, but given their strength of schedule this is largely meaningless. In fact, against some poor defenses you’d have to expect a bit of an improvement on offense given some of the opponents they’ve run through – yet they remain right in the middle of the league this month in scoring efficiency.
With their defense still in disarray, too, this matchup with the Sacramento Kings looks to be incredibly arduous. Sacramento has scored the most points per 100 possessions in the league this month. This leaves little doubt that they can exploit L.A.
Against shots from just inside the arc, however, Sacramento has improved dramatically this month to rank 12th, and that should just about kill any hope that the midrange-minded Lakers have of breaking out offensively.
As we expect the Kings to win the war of attrition on defense, too, they should make life even more difficult on the glass where the Lakers have continued to rank well below their opponents for the season.
Any glimmer of hope that L.A. would have on defense here seems to be lost, too, given the Kings have done the bulk of their heavy lifting in the mid-range in December, leading the league in shot frequency and conversion rate.
Excelling in the mid-range isn’t anything newsworthy for the Kings, of course, but it’s worth noting that things have gone from great to greater in those focus areas. The Lakers have allowed the 13th-most shots to come from the mid-range this month, and while they’ve made some improvements just beyond the restricted area they’re dead last in defending long jumpers in the zone.
I simply have no faith that the Lakers will be able to slow the Kings down enough to make up for their egregiously flat offense. With Sacramento really only struggling to defend the three as of late, a team which shoots well below average from outside should become minced meat.
Lakers vs Kings same-game parlay
Kings -5
DeMar DeRozan Over 21.5 points
LeBron James 3+ threes made
The Lakers’ four-point win over the Kings in the first week of the season seems to be a distant memory given how bad things have become for L.A., so I feel the need to remind you that the Kings did do an excellent job offensively in that game and it was largely thanks to DeMar DeRozan as he quickly integrated himself into this offense.
DeRozan dropped 23 points on L.A., and all he’s done is reach that mark in just 11 of 19 games since, discounting a game cut very short due to injury. He continues to take on plenty of volume with 17.3 field goal attempts on average over his last 10 contests. With that, the mid-range maestro should go off against the league’s worst defense against long two-point shots this month.
On the flip side, while we don’t expect the Lakers to spurn the Kings’ weak 3-point defense, we can expect at least a marginal increase in their performance on the arc. I’m looking to LeBron James to bring us home, considering he's shot his way out of a slump with nine triples on 17 attempts across his last two games. He went 4-for-9 from deep last time against the Kings and should look to force the issue here given the state of his offense.
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Lakers vs Kings odds
Lakers vs Kings live odds
Lakers vs Kings opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +5 | Sacramento -5
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +175 | Sacramento -210
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 | Under 228.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Lakers vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Kings seem to be the consensus side here, steadily moving out to five-point favorites on Thursday afternoon with only a few brief spots of resistance.
- While 59% of the spread bets are on the Lakers, 89% of the money is on the Kings.
- The total made a steady ascent all the way to 232 points on Tuesday evening after the markets opened, only to drop in increments all the way down to 227.5. There’s been some slight buy-back on Thursday, moving the total back up a point to 228.5.
- The Over has accounted for 65% of the tickets and 79% of the handle.
Lakers vs Kings trend
The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 23 of their last 33 games (+12.88 Units / 31% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Kings.
How to watch Lakers vs Kings
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SPECSN, NBCSCA |
Lakers vs Kings latest injuries
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