Mavericks vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: Bryant Boards Up the Mavs

The Dallas Mavericks close out an extended stay in Southern California, taking on the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena Thursday.

Dallas has lost two straight and three of its last four games, most recently losing on this very same floor to the L.A. Clippers on Tuesday. The Mavericks are having troubles scoring with injuries to key rotation players testing their depth.

The other Los Angeles team, the Lakers, are also fresh off a loss but have played better basketball overall since the start of 2023. A loss to Denver on Monday snapped a five-game winning streak for L.A. but unlike the previous outing, LeBron James is expected to be on the court tonight.

I dive into the spread and total for this Western Conference clash and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Lakers on January 12.

Mavericks vs Lakers best odds

Mavericks vs Lakers picks and predictions

In the wake of Anthony Davis’ injury, 6-foot-10 center Thomas Bryant has seen his role expanded along with his minutes.

Bryant is logging more than 30 minutes per game since mid-December, providing some much-needed scoring inside but also creating a constant force on the glass for the Lakers. He’s battled on the boards for double-digit rebounds in nine of his last 13 outings. 

Bryant’s rebound total for tonight’s game is sitting at 10.5 Over/Under — right on his average in the 13 games since Davis went down — but considering the state of the Dallas frontcourt, he could easily own the boards in this home game. 

The Mavericks are already down big man Maxi Kleber and starting center Dwight Powell is questionable with a hip injury. That leaves the Mavs to go smaller and bring in the aging legs of veteran JaVale McGee to wrangle rebounds.

Even when healthy, Dallas isn’t a great rebounding team. It ranks 29th in total rebound percentage, with that metric sliding to dead last in the NBA when playing on the road. The Mavs’ stretch-four offense often pulls the big men away from the rim, leaving smaller players like Luka Doncic and the absent Dorian Finney-Smith to lead the team in rebounds many nights.

Adding to those issues on the glass is a current shooting slump from Dallas. The team normally knocks down around 47% of field goals but has made only 44.8% of attempts over the past four games, including a 30-for-69 night in the loss to the Clippers on Tuesday — a game in which Dallas was out-rebounded 46-32. 

Bryant played less than 19 minutes in the Dec. 25 matchup with the Mavs, grabbing just three defensive rebounds, but that Xmas Day showcase produced odd results in the second half. Things are set up for a bountiful day on the boards from Bryant at home tonight.

My best bet: Thomas Bryant  Over 10.5 rebounds (-104)

Mavericks vs Lakers spread analysis

This point spread opened with Dallas as a 3-point road favorite overnight and some books are up to Mavs -3.5, with the Lakers lineup showing some injury issues heading into Thursday’s game.

LeBron , who sat out Monday’s game with an ankle injury, is expected to play against Dallas. James has been vital to L.A.’s success, especially since losing star big man Anthony Davis for an extended period. Other notable Lakers on the fence for tonight’s contest are veteran guard Patrick Beverley (questionable) and backup SG Troy Brown Jr.

The Mavericks enter this contest extremely reliant on their starting lineup to produce the points. Injuries to Finney-Smith, Kleber, and Josh Green have put a lot of stress on Dallas’ depth, and now, Powell is listed as questionable for tonight with a hip injury.

These clubs played each other a few weeks back in a Christmas Day showcase, with the Mavericks winning 124-115 as 7.5-point home favorites. Los Angeles held an 11-point lead at the half and won three of four quarters but allowed Dallas to outscore it 51-21 in the third quarter (a franchise record) and couldn’t recover.

The Mavs shot 52% from the floor for the game but that percentage is skewed due to an 18-for-25 third quarter in which Dallas buried nine 3-pointers. The Lakers didn’t play poorly, outside of their usual sub-par performance from beyond the arc and checked the Mavs to 44% shooting in the other three frames.

Overall, Los Angeles is 18-22-1 ATS on the season, including a 9-9 ATS count at home. But the Lakers had covered in each of those previous five games before losing at Denver earlier this week. 

Dallas enters Thursday on an ATS slide, having covered the spread only once in its last six games going back to New Year’s Eve. The Mavericks are 14-26-2 ATS on the year and a dismal 6-14 ATS on the road.

Mavericks vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under opened as low as 228.5 points and has climbed to as high as 235.5 points with overnight action on the Over.

The positive status of James injects the Lakers lineup with a go-to scorer after the team managed only 109 points on 44% shooting in the loss to the Nuggets. James is the key to the Lakers’ transition attack and also gives them an isolation option when the shot clock ticks down. 

Dallas is one of the better teams at stopping transition attacks, allowing a scoring frequency of just 48.3%, which ranks fourth-lowest in the NBA, and giving up only 1.07 points per play to transition teams, which is the third-lowest average in the league.

This is a true clash of tempos, as the Lakers want to get up and down the floor and get points in the paint, boasting the second-fastest-pace rating in the land (102.89). The Mavs, on the other hand, are on the opposite end of that scale at 29th in pace rating (96.40). When they clashed on Xmas, Dallas dictated the tempo of the game with an overall pace of 94.50 for that Dec. 25 matchup.

That 124-115 win by the Mavericks did blow past the closing total of 232 points, but mainly due to that anomaly of a third quarter. There were just 97 total points scored in the opening half and even with a slight uptick in offense, this game would have comfortably come in Under the number if not for that wild third quarter and a frantic effort from the Lakers in the fourth.

Los Angeles enters this rematch with Dallas owning a 24-17 Over/Under record, including a 10-8 O/U count at home. Dallas is 24-18 O/U this year with a 10-10 O/U record on the road.

Mavericks vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Mavericks have played Under in six of their last eight road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Lakers.

Mavericks vs Lakers game info

Mavericks vs Lakers key injuries

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