Mavericks vs Nets Picks and Predictions: Dallas Gets Right Against Bumbling Brooklyn

Tonight’s premier NBA matchup is a showdown between the 1-2 Dallas Mavericks and the 1-3 Brooklyn Nets. The two star-laden and struggling teams face off in Barclays Center in a clash between two of the NBA’s elite scorers. Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant have both been transcendent to begin the season, but their individual play has not resulted in excellent team success.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Nets look at the flaws with both teams’ early play but ultimately find that the Nets’ problems are more likely to prove decisive.

Mavericks vs Nets best odds

Mavericks vs Nets picks and predictions

With both the Mavericks and the Nets still searching for their second win, neither team can be particularly thrilled with the way the season has started. The Mavericks have let two close games slip away against fellow Western Conference contenders in the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans. Those losses exposed two long-term issues that Dallas must iron out if they want to ascend to the rank of legitimate Finals contender.

The first is that their defense, much improved last season, has been shaky. There were bound to be growing pains introducing Christian Wood and JaVale McGee into the front-court rotation, particularly as Wood gives opposing offenses a new player to target in the pick-and-roll outside of Luka Doncic. But that’s not the only issue. There seems to be a combination of over-aggression and tentativeness as they defend against screens, needlessly trapping and giving up the lane on too many occasions, while other times providing little to no ball pressure. Their defensive improvement last year was so stunning, it’s fair to wonder how much of it was smoke and mirrors.

The other issue is with the man himself, Luka Doncic. Perhaps it’s because he’s already so good that the areas where he struggles seem to stand out that much more, like one chipped fingernail on an otherwise perfectly manicured hand. One of those specific areas is his transition defense, something that optimists hoped would benefit from his improved offseason conditioning from playing at EuroBasket. So far, no dice.

The other is his late-game decision-making. He gets into offense so slowly and is inclined toward ultra-deep 3-point attempts instead of driving and attacking the basket where he typically dominates. He also refuses to get off the ball early in these situations, allowing defenses to load to him in these spots with impunity. While Jason Kidd might also deserve some of the blame here, it has been a persistent feature of Luka’s game since before Kidd’s tenure.

Those difficulties might make this a closer game than it ought to be, but the Nets have a whole host of even bigger problems. First and foremost, is the play of Ben Simmons.

After missing significant time with both a back injury and mental health difficulties, Simmons' return has been one of the most scrutinized in the NBA this season. How would Simmons play alongside Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, two of the best shooters in the league and ostensibly an incredible fit alongside his pass-first playstyle?

The early results have not been encouraging. Simmons is stiff and not moving well, as if he has not recovered fully from offseason back surgery. His timing is off on defense as well. He’s fouled out of two games already and is far from delivering the Defensive Player of the Year caliber value he needs. Simmons two years ago might have been the perfect defensive foil for Doncic, but in the current incarnation, he’ll be lucky to stay on the court through three quarters.

Offensively, he looks like a worse version of the player who froze in the series against the Atlanta Hawks. He’s afraid to take free throws, shies away from contact, and is dead weight off the ball. Kyrie could be seen desperately imploring Simmons to shoot last night against the Bucks. That’s a much bigger problem than lingering back tightness. 

These Nets have issues outside of Simmons, but to even have a chance of hanging with Luka and the Mavericks, he has to look like an All-Star on at least one side of the ball. For now, that’s strictly a hypothetical proposition.

My best bet: Mavericks -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Mavericks vs Nets spread analysis

NBA odds have seen line movement from as much as Mavericks +2.5 to -2.5. Most books moved to -1.5 for a time but it's since shifted back to Dallas -2.5 with some books moving to -3.5.  While it would certainly have been nice to get this line at +2.5, there’s still plenty of reason to consider backing Dallas.

As mentioned, the Nets are on a back-to-back, and both Kyrie and KD played 39+ minutes in last night’s loss to the Bucks. As he’s aged, Durant has become more and more reliant on his jump shot as the foundation of his offense. His rate of scoring at the rim has fallen dramatically since his Achilles injury, and his tired legs are likely to impact his game more than they might have in the past. 

With little continuity to speak of, Durant’s offense is just about the only thing going well on that end for Brooklyn. Durant has scored at an MVP level so far this season, but even so, the Nets have sported a Bottom-10 offensive rating.

The Nets are small, they’re not particularly tough, and while they have outstanding individual scorers, their overall offense is predictable and ineffective. That’s all contributed to a lackluster 1-3 record against the spread this season.

While the Mavericks might be a one tricky pony, at least their trick is damn impressive. Outside of a fully activated Golden State Warriors team featuring Draymond Green, there has not yet been a reliable antidote to death by Doncic. A Brooklyn team still searching for a calling card is unlikely to find one tonight.

Mavericks vs Nets Over/Under analysis

It’s reasonable to expect an offensive avalanche in this game. With the total having seen movement between 226.5 and 228.5, bookmakers are certainly predicting one.

The Mavericks are the No.1 offense in the NBA through three games, posting a 121.2 offensive rating. But that number is, in addition to being the product of a teensy sample size, a bit misleading. Most of that rating was earned as the Mavs ran up the score against a depleted Memphis Grizzlies team on the heels of a grueling back-to-back. 

Then again, the Nets find themselves in much the same situation tonight. Is there any reason to think the Nets will hold onto the rope against Dallas better than the Grizzlies did? Not if their season to this point is any indication. The Nets have the second-worst defensive rating so far, a hair behind the aforementioned Grizzlies, but with no similar rest excuses to speak of. 

This game should be an offensive showcase due to the otherworldly scoring and playmaking talent on hand. The question is whether or not KD and Kyrie have enough in the tank to score against a Mavericks defense that has been unsteady.

Mavericks vs Nets betting trend to know

The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Nets.

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