Mavericks vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Pace Governs Mavs-Nugs

The Denver Nuggets look to put the brakes on their mini-skid Tuesday when they host the Dallas Mavericks, who are fresh off a dismantling of the Phoenix Suns last night. 

This game will feature a showdown of perennial MVP candidates in Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic, but despite arguably the game's two most gifted offensive players facing off, our NBA picks and predictions don't see a ton of scoring taking place. 

Find out why as we preview this Tuesday, December 6th matchup. 

Mavericks vs Nuggets best odds

Mavericks vs Nuggets picks and predictions

This game will be all about pace. Dallas and Denver are two of the laggiest teams in the NBA and have been for years. This season, the Mavs rank as the second-slowest squad, while the Nuggets still clock in the Bottom 10, meaning we're likely in for a more deliberate slog.

The total's seen line movement in both directions, resting around 224 as of writing. For context, these two teams are 3-11 O/U against that number in their last 14 regulation-length meetings, dating back to 2018 when Luka Doncic was drafted. 

In their two games earlier this season, a team failed to score 100 points three of four times, with the Mavs morphing into molten lava to score 127 while shooting 60% from the field (read: won't happen again) on November 18. 

Nikola Jokic is as methodical a playmaker that exists, and while I don't expect the Mavericks to be tired necessarily after last night's casual drubbing of Phoenix, they're certainly not going to be apt to push the pace, especially not in the thin-air Ball Arena. The Mavs don't play again until Friday, but it's another back-to-back, with the first leg against the Bucks. This week should be all about conservation for Jason Kidd and his staff. 

Michael Porter Jr.'s absence — while baked into this line from a scoring standpoint — will only further constrict the Nuggets' pace, forcing Jokic to cycle through more options, and do so in less space. Denver should bleed even more clock in several spots. 

The icing on the cake (speaking of baking) is that these are two of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the league, with Dallas hitting just 72.2% from the stripe (29th) and Denver not much better at 74.5% (24th). Less risk of dead-clock points is even more reason to trust an Under. 

Be sure to check Covers' NBA odds page and shop around for this bet, as the total varies as much as two points book-to-book. And act quickly — it's falling.

My best bet: Under 224.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Mavericks vs Nuggets spread analysis

The Mavericks enter this game with the dubious distinction of holding the NBA's worst record against the spread at 7-15-1, mirrored by their 3-7 ATS mark on the road. Denver's at least managed to go 5-3 ATS at home this season, a positive contrast to its 6-9 mark in away games.

The difference appears to be in Denver's defense, which ranks 26th on the road, but a far more respectable 11th at home. This could easily be small-sample noise before we go trumpeting some kind of mile-high edge for the Nuggets, who don't profile as a team of stoppers on paper.

They're especially thin on bodies to clash with Doncic right now, and while that will likely lead to Bruce Brown spending more time marking the Slovenian sensation (definitely not a bad thing), Jeff Green's absence also removes a competent cover for the rangy swing-forward shooters that thrive in the margins Doncic's drives create.

Dallas plays a back-to-back tonight, but last night's game in Phoenix should be little more than a momentum boost, seeing as the Mavs went up by 20 early and stayed in cruise control the rest of the way. Only Josh Green played more than 30 minutes. Dallas has been getting more balanced scoring efforts around Doncic, and Denver's lack of both bodies and coherent defense could be exposed. 

Meanwhile, the Nuggets continue to be without Porter, who, while not making the offensive leap some projected for him this year, was still a lethal spacing threat that kept teams honest against collapsing on Jokic. Caldwell-Pope's absence only doubles down on that demerit, especially for a team like Dallas with multiple mobile bigs and competent swingmen. 

Ultimately, the Nuggets have been a sub-.500 team ATS each of the past three seasons (at a dreadful 16-27 last year), so I'm not as inclined to buy their early success there this season. The Mavs haven't exactly met preseason expectations, but I don't think they're as bad as the perception their league-worst ATS mark creates.

This is definitely more of a lean than a play for me, but I'd take the Mavs, getting as much as 4.5 points as of writing. 

Mavericks vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

With two methodical teams squaring off and the one that's more likely, in theory, to push the tempo on a road back-to-back, this game should play at a snail's pace. 

The historical outcomes between these two squads certainly suggest a low-scoring game, in one of the rare spots where season-over-season trends are relevant, as both sides have run relatively similar systems around heliocentric hubs (Jokic and Doncic) for several years. 

Those Nuggets-Mavericks tilts in the Doncic-Jokic era have averaged just 212.5 points, and several factors — from Denver's hobbled swingman rotation to Dallas' schedule spot — suggest even more potential for a plodding matchup.

Mavericks vs Nuggets betting trend to know

Under is 6-1 in Nuggets' last seven home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Nuggets.

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