Get set for one of the NBA Western Conference's best rivalries when the Denver Nuggets welcome the Dallas Mavericks to Ball Arena.
Dallas guard Luka Doncic has begun his new campaign nursing a shooting slump, and my Mavericks vs. Nuggets predictions expect his shooting woes to continue tonight.
Read on as I explain my NBA picks for Sunday, November 10.
Mavericks vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Luka Doncic Under 31.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic is a superstar.
He’s Dallas’s leading scorer and top playmaker, and thanks to teammate Dereck Lively, Doncic doesn’t have to lead the team in rebounds.
Doncic is nursing a left groin strain that has caused him trouble in his past two games. It has affected all aspects of the Slovenians’ game, especially his scoring.
Doncic averages 28.5 per night. His prop scoring is 31.5, and he hasn’t cleared this number in his previous two and five of his last seven. His scoring number is too high, and I’m betting he doesn’t score 32+.
There are a couple of primary reasons I like the Under.
The Dallas guard's shot isn’t falling. He’s taking his usual complement of shots, but they just aren’t falling. He’s draining 40% of his 24 shots from the field and making only 34% of his 10 triple attempts, which is why Doncic is averaging a tick over his career average (28.7 ppg).
The other main reason is the Denver Nuggets defense in the half-court set. They are average defenders but have length, are physical, and can disrupt shots, which is less than optimal for a shooter to break out of a shooting slump.
Finally, Doncic is nursing a groin injury. It’s impacted his scoring, and with the upcoming NBA Cup, maybe Doncic won’t play his typical 37 minutes. Doncic has failed to score 32+ in five of the past seven tilts and likely won’t score 32+ against Denver tonight.
Mavericks vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Doncic Under 31.5 points
Doncic Over 7.5 assists
Thompson Over 2.5 threes
Dallas got Doncic some scoring help, and Klay Thompson has taken some of the scoring burden from the Slovenians’ shoulders.
Doncic has always been a playmaker. He has a high usage rate and dishes eight dimes per game. Denver allows the 23rd-most points per night, and Doncic has cleared eight dimes in two of his past four.
One of those recipients will be Thompson. The former Golden State sniper is coming off a 1-7 stinker from downtown against Phoenix. Thompson has landed 3+ triples in five of his last nine and will enjoy firing away against a Nuggets side, allowing the 27th most triple attempts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mavericks vs Nuggets odds
Mavericks vs Nuggets live odds
Mavericks vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +5.5 (-105) | Denver -5.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Dallas (+200) | Denver (-250)
- Over/Under: Over 231.5 (-110) | Under 231.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mavericks vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas is 2-3-0 ATS across their past five, and the lack of line movement is likely because Denver is 4-1-0 ATS across their previous five.
- Past head-to-head history doesn’t help much. Denver is 3-2-0 ATS across their past five meetings with Dallas.
- The total spiked ½ a point from 230.5 to 231 (-110). Dallas is 1-4-0 to the Under across their last five, while Denver is 5-0-0 to the Over during their previous five tilts.
Mavericks vs Nuggets trend
The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 40 of their last 64 games (+14.70 Units / 21% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Mavericks vs Nuggets
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ALT, KFAA |
Mavericks vs Nuggets latest injuries
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