Mavericks vs Rockets Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Houston Shuts Down Limping Mavs

Two teams in the thick of the NBA’s West playoff picture clash when the ghost of the Dallas Mavericks visit the Houston Rockets.

H-Town, holding down ninth in the conference, has dropped three in a row — including just their second home loss all season last time out against Atlanta.

Tied for the most home wins in the West, they’re 8.5-point favorites in the NBA odds.

Dallas, meanwhile, is a major patchwork unit that’s dropped three of four and is about to embark on a holiday odyssey that will see it play five games in seven days, including two sets of back-to-backs.

What do I have for this Texas two-step? Find out in my free NBA picks for the Mavericks vs Rockets on December 22.

Mavericks vs Rockets odds

Mavericks vs Rockets predictions

The Dallas Mavericks' injury list is as long as a CVS receipt, and two big ticket items should undoubtedly play the biggest factor tonight.

We already know Kyrie Irving (heel) will miss his sixth straight game, but joining him on the sidelines will be MVP candidate Luka Doncic, who is dealing with a quad injury.

Doncic is coming off a near triple-double in a 120-111 loss to the Clippers. Most notable was him scoring just 28 points, ending a run of 11 straight 30+ point outings. You’re not going to replace 32.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 9.1 assists.

Those two losses are tough enough, but also in streetwear against the Rockets are Dante Exum (leg contusion), Maxi Kleber (toe), Josh Green (elbow), and Dereck Lively (ankle). On a positive note, Seth Curry (back) is questionable.

With the sixth-ranked scoring team in the NBA a current shell of itself, the Houston Rockets may get some relief. They were lit on fire by the Atlanta Hawks last game, losing 134-127.

Houston’s defense is one of the league’s best, sitting second in the league in points allowed at 108.4, third in field goal defense (44.3%), and first in 3-point shooting D — holding teams to a subpar 32.4% clip. That was nonexistent against the Hawks, who shot 51.6% from the floor and a blistering 17-for-40 from distance.

During this three-game slide, Houston is allowing 125.3 points per game, with teams shooting 49.4% from the field and 47.1% from beyond the arc.

This is the opening of a back-to-back set for the Rockets, who will face New Orleans next, before another back-to-back after Christmas with Indiana and Phoenix on the docket.

A depleted Dallas unit might be their best chance to get their defense right before playing some offensively gifted players and teams. The Under is 15-10-0 in Houston’s games this season and has hit in seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups.

Let’s not overthink this one.

My best bet: Under 228.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Mavericks vs Rockets same-game parlay

Under 228.5

Jabari Smith Over 13.5 points

Alperen Sengun Under 9.5 rebounds

Rockets moneyline

+748 at FanDuel

I’ve got Houston’s defense locking down this backup Dallas roster, so adding the Rockets to win is a no-brainer. In addition, let’s target the frontcourt, where the Mavericks will likely feature a small-ball unit as they did against the Clippers, with Derrick Jones Jr. and Grant Williams occupying the big-man roles.

Dwight Powell is available but ineffective, with undersized Richaun Holmes the only real live body in the middle.

That should be a major advantage Rockets. Jabari Smith Jr. is coming off his best game of the season, pouring in a game-high 34 points, with 13 boards and four blocks. He has yo-yo’d in his last five games though, crossing his 13.5-point scoring total set for Friday three times, but sandwiched in between those games are a pair of five-point performances.

Matchups matter here, and even when Smith lined up against Dallas in their 121-115 loss on November 28, he still had 16 points and nine boards. I like Smith staying hot.

I’ll finish with Alperen Sengun, who should also have his way on the interior. However, his rebounding total might be a bit high, considering he’s grabbed 10 or more rebounds three times in his last 11, including nine boards against the Mavs in November.

This one could be over quickly, so Sengun might not garner his normal 32 minutes. Take his Under on the glass.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mavericks vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis

What a difference a Doncic makes. Before the news he was out, this spread was as thin as 2.5 points. 

Now? We’re watching the numbers climb right before our eyes, as books scramble to set a more reasonable line. It’s currently available at 8.5 points, but this could move even higher by tip.

Conversely, the total should start to plummet. It hit as high as 233 points but has dropped as low as 228.5, and you may see a few more points shaved off that as we get closer to game time.

Mavericks vs Rockets betting trend to know

The Rockets have won 10 straight home games against Western Conference opponents. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Rockets.

Mavericks vs Rockets game info

Mavericks vs Rockets latest injuries

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