It’s a heavyweight tilt in the Big Ten this Sunday as the 19th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini visit the 12th-ranked Michigan State Spartans.
Illinois enters having won six of its last seven, including three conference wins on the road. Still, they’re 3.5-point road underdogs in the college basketball odds to the Spartans, who have won 10 straight and sit atop the Big Ten at perfect 6-0.
My Illinois vs. Michigan State prediction has the visitors’ more rounded level of play being the difference on January 19.
Illinois vs Michigan State prediction
My best bet
Illinois +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Illinois Fighting Illini bounced back from a home loss at USC by crushing the Indiana Hoosiers 94-69, dropping the most points by a visiting team at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. They also have a recent dominant 109-77 win at No. 9 Oregon, setting a national record for largest road win over a Top 25 team.
Illinois ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring, dropping 87.3 points per game. They are beasts inside, leading the conference in both offensive rebounding and total rebounds. Defensively, they rank Top 4 in the conference allowing just 67.3 points per game, and Top 6 in both field goal and 3-point shooting defense.
The Michigan State Spartans are no slouches either, ringing up 81.8 points per game (seventh). However, if there is a weakness in their game, it’s 3-point shooting. MSU is last in the Big Ten, shooting 28.7% from distance, the only team in the conference under the 30% plateau.
It hasn’t hurt them on this current 10-game fun, including last game, when they outlasted Penn State to win 90-85. Then again, the only ranked team they played in that stretch was North Carolina. None of the teams they’ve beaten are inside the KenPom Top 30, with UNC the closest at 32.
The Spartans have played just two ranked teams this season, and they also dropped a 77-69 game to then No. 1 Kansas. Illinois will be facing its sixth Top 25 team, going 3-2 so far, including a close two-point loss to Tennessee, ranked first at the time.
Michigan State won the most recent meeting between these teams, breaking Illinois’ 4-game win streak. But this is their first meeting this season, and Illinois is scorching offensively, averaging 92 points per game over the last seven.
The Illini will provide a real test for the Spartans’ defense. If MSU can’t hold up, it’s unlikely their 3-point shooting will keep them connected.
Illinois vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)
Illinois +3.5
Kasparas Jakucionis Over 16.5 points
Jaden Adkins Over 14.5 points
My college basketball picks are targeting each team’s leading scorer for this SGP.
Freshman Kasparas Jakucionis returned after missing a couple of games to score 21 against Indiana, on a crisp 7-for-13 from the field. He’s got a gettable scoring line of 16.5 Sunday, a number he’s been around in each of his last 10 appearances, crossing it eight times.
Jakucionis has also shown up in the big games, as he’s led the team in scoring in three of their five games against ranked teams this season.
MSU senior guard Jaden Adkins is leading a balanced scoring attack for the Spartans, averaging 14.2 points per game. Over this 10-game win streak, Adkins has topped his 14.5 scoring line five times, including last time out against Penn State. He’s also come within a bucket of topping the total in four other instances.
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Illinois vs Michigan State odds
Illinois vs Michigan State live odds
Illinois vs Michigan State opening odds
- Spread: Illinois +3.5 | Michigan State -3.5
- Moneyline: Illinois +161 | Michigan State -190
- Over/Under: Over 156 | Under 156
Odds courtesy of bet365
Illinois vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State's last 16 Sunday day games vs. Big Ten opponents have produced a total of 151 or fewer. Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Michigan State.
How to watch Illinois vs Michigan State
| Location: | Jack Breslin Student Events Center, East Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-19-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Illinois vs Michigan State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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