It wasn’t long ago that a matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs would mean seeing two of the faces of the NBA. Instead, Luka Doncic is in Los Angeles and Victor Wembanyama is out for the season.
Despite being down Wembanyama, San Antonio is in far better shape than Dallas entering this matchup with a trio of guards capable of carrying this offense and far fewer injuries.
That’s why my Mavericks vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, March 12 expect San Antonio to handle business at home.
Mavericks vs Spurs prediction
My best bet: Spurs -6 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
As brutal as it is to be down Wemby and Gregg Popovich, the San Antonio Spurs don’t have it nearly as bad as the Dallas Mavericks. Nico Harrison is the most hated man in the Lone Star State, with Doncic really hitting his stride for the Lakers as of late.
The crown jewel for Harrison in making that trade, the often injured Anthony Davis, is well... injured and might be shut down for the season. The team is now also down Kyrie Irving, who had been doing everything humanly possible to keep the team afloat.
It doesn’t even end there with Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, and Jaden Hardy all out. Plus, P.J. Washington, arguably the team's best player left, is a game-time decision for this matchup with an ankle injury. So Jason Kidd will need Dante Exum, Max Christie, and a washed Klay Thompson to carry the load? I have a hard time seeing that happening, even against this sporadic Spurs squad.
The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS since Feb. 27, and while they did beat the Spurs by four on Monday, that was with Thompson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kessler Edwards, and Naji Marshall all scoring 22+ points. It’s unrealistic to think that’s going to happen again.
Instead, look for the Spurs to seek revenge by taking advantage of this horrific defense. Dallas is giving up a jaw-dropping 127.8 ppg in March and allowing opponents to shoot 52.9% from the floor and 40.4% from behind the arc.
With Chris Paul facilitating and the foursome of De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and NBA Rookie of the Year favorite Stephon Castle all capable of popping off, Dallas doesn’t have the defense to stop this attack. Even Harrison Barnes put up 29 against his former team the other night.
This will depend on whether San Antonio can get it together on the defensive end after struggling on Monday, but even if they can’t, I don’t think the Mavs are set to have a repeat performance where they have four different guys nearly double their nightly scoring averages.
Mavericks vs Spurs same-game parlay
Spurs -6
De'Aaron Fox Over 6.5 assists
Devil Vassell Over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists
The addition of Fox hasn’t panned out yet for San Antonio with Wembanyama being lost for the season, but the All-Star has had some bright moments. His passing in particular has been on display lately with three performances of seven-plus assists in his last four games.
Fox had eight apples on Monday against the Mavericks and was key in getting the rock to Vassell. The Florida State product ended up with 24 points against the Mavericks, and should be able to put up big numbers once again.
Vassell has stepped his game up in March and is averaging 19.8 ppg, 5.0 rpb, and 3.5 apg (28.3), so look for him to cross 25.5 combined for the fourth time in seven games.
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Mavericks vs Spurs odds
Mavericks vs Spurs live odds
Mavericks vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +6 | San Antonio -6
- Moneyline: Dallas +185 | San Antonio -225
- Over/Under: Over 237.5 | Under 237.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Mavericks vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Antonio opened between a 5.5 and 6-point home favorite with most books offering the Spurs -6 as tip approaches.
- While the Mavericks have a far better record than the Spurs this season ATS at 32-32-2 (San Antonio is 27-36), Dallas has covered just twice since Feb. 23.
- The Over/Under opened between 236.5 and 237.5 with little movement, but could see a dip if several players that are game-time decisions are ruled out.
- The Spurs have been one of the better Over bets this season at 35-28 while the Mavericks are also respectable at 34-32.
Mavericks vs Spurs trend
The Spurs have cashed the moneyline in 19 of their last 37 games at home (+11.45 units / 23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Spurs.
How to watch Mavericks vs Spurs
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA, FDSN - Southwest |
Mavericks vs Spurs latest injuries
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