The Phoenix Suns will be looking to win their 10th game in a row when they host a Dallas Mavericks team that will be without superstar Luka Doncic on Wednesday. The Mavericks also come into this one playing some pretty good basketball, but it’ll be interesting to see if they can keep things close without the focal point of their offense.
Will Phoenix keep rolling with a win at the Footprint Center? Keep reading our Mavericks vs. Suns picks and predictions if you want to see how this NBA betting matchup will play out.
Mavericks vs Suns odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Mavericks were 6.5-point underdogs when this game first became available, but they’re now getting either 8 or 8.5 now that Doncic has been ruled out. Meanwhile, the total hasn’t changed much and is currently sitting at 215.5 or 216.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mavericks vs Suns predictions
Predictions made on 11/17/2021 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mavericks vs Suns game info
• Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Wednesday, November-XX, 2021
• Tip-off:10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, BSAZ, BSSW, SN1
Mavericks vs Suns betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Luka Doncic F (Out), Maxi Kleber F (Out)
Suns: Dario Saric F (Out), Frank Kaminsky (Questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Suns are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games as favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Suns.
Mavericks vs Suns picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Not only are the Suns on a nine-game winning streak coming into this game, but Phoenix has also won and covered in each of its last six meetings with Dallas. Now, the red-hot Suns have a chance to face a Mavericks group that could be somewhat lost without Doncic on the floor. Dallas does have some other good players, with Kristaps Porzingis, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jalen Brunson being the most notable. But with the way the Suns are playing right now, it’s hard to envision this not turning into something of a blowout.
While Porzingis has looked a lot better this year than he did last year, he could be in for a rude awakening against a guy like Deandre Ayton. Ayton has the right combination of size and mobility to make Porzingis work, when Zinger normally has the advantage in quickness against other big men. If Ayton can do a good job of defending Porzingis, there’s really not a lot the Mavericks can do to keep this game close. Phoenix has the second-best defensive rating in the league over the course of its winning streak, so this group just isn’t giving up all that much right now.
Offensively, the Suns should be able to pick apart this Mavericks backcourt. Chris Paul rarely ever has a matchup with an opposing point guard that is as small and limited athletically as he is. However, he has just that in Brunson, so don’t be surprised if Paul really picks on him a bit here. Meanwhile, Booker should look to do the same against Hardaway, who isn’t a very good defender.
The only thing that can get in the way of a blowout here is the Suns not taking this game seriously. However, Phoenix has a strong culture and should be excited about the opportunity to win 10 in a row. With that, don’t bank on a letdown performance.
Prediction: Suns -8 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Since Monty Williams became the head coach of the Suns, the Over is 11-2 in the Suns’ home November games. It’s also 41-24 when the team is coming off a game in which it gave up 105 or fewer points. And perhaps the most telling is that the Over is 35-20 when the Suns face teams that force 13 or fewer turnovers per game in that span. That final trend is the most digestible, as it simply means that Phoenix is capable of punishing opponents that don’t apply pressure on defense and create mistakes.
The Over has also hit in four of the last five games that Dallas has played, and it wouldn’t be all that shocking if the Mavericks play at a faster pace with Doncic sidelined. The Suns already play at the fourth-fastest pace in basketball, so that would be a great development for Over bettors.
Prediction: Over 215.5 (-110)
Best bet
As mentioned earlier, the only thing that can get in Phoenix’s way in this game is Phoenix. The Suns should have no trouble winning this game in lopsided fashion, but they have to know that, too. If Phoenix doesn’t take Dallas as seriously as it has its previous nine opponents, the Suns could struggle to handle their business in this game. However, that is not the Phoenix team we’ve seen over the past year.
Nobody in the NBA has a better record since the bubble than the Suns, and part of that has to do with this group showing up on a nightly basis. The Suns started the season poorly and have responded with nine straight wins to rocket up the West standings, so Phoenix may have already had its gut check. This game against a short-handed Mavericks team represents a good opportunity for the Suns to continue their upward momentum and put more distance between themselves and the teams chasing them.
Pick: Suns -8 (-110)
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