The Golden State Warriors are picking up steam and putting space between them and the rest of the West vying for a spot in the play-in tournament. The Dubs have a shot at three straight wins when they host the Dallas Mavericks, playing the second game of back-to-back outings Tuesday.
Dallas actually opened as a 1.5-point road NBA betting favorite for this game but with Luka Doncic nursing a sore elbow and Kristaps Porzingis out, sharp bettors swung this spread first to Warriors -2.5 and now -4.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Warriors on April 27.
Mavericks vs Warriors odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings pegged Dallas a 1-point favorite late Monday night, but today's news that Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are both doubtful has helped significantly swing this line. Golden State moved as high as -5.5 and is -5 at 6:30 p.m. ET, with ticket count 2/1 and money beyond 3/1 on the Warriors. The total dropped from 225.5 to 222 and is now 222.5, though it appears much of the dip was off information rather than action, as the Over is attracting 90 percent of tickets and 71 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMavericks at Warriors betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis F (Out), J.J. Redick G (Questionable), Josh Richardson G (Questionable).
Warriors: Kent Bazemore F (Out), Damion Lee G (Out), Eric Paschall F (Out), James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Warriors.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to Thursday evening's news that Luka Doncic would play for the Mavs, while Kristaps Porzingis will sit out vs. the Warriors.)
Capping NBA games at this point in the schedule is always tricky and when you throw a back-to-back situation into the mix, keeping track of who’s in and who’s out can be as frustrating as watching the Academy Awards.
As it stands Tuesday morning, Porzingis is a question mark after sitting out Monday’s loss to Sacramento with an ankle injury, as are J.J. Redick and Josh Richardson. Also lurking in the shadows are the Mavs’ plans for Luka Doncic in this second night of two in a row, as he’s been playing through a sore elbow.
If you’re on the fence about this one, maybe walk away to fight another day. If you’re leaning Dubs, you should have grabbed them before official announcements from Dallas puffed this spread up further.
The Warriors have won three of their last four with quality victories against Denver and Philadelphia and while they didn’t cover the 7.5-point chalk against Sacramento on Sunday, they’re a tough team at home with a 19-10 SU mark and a 17-12 ATS count as a host.
Even with Doncic playing, Golden State still boasts the best player on the floor. Stephen Curry continues to light the entire league aflame, scoring more than 38 points a night this month on 53 percent shooting, including 37 points on 11-for-21 from the floor in the win over the Kings on the weekend. He dropped 57 points on Dallas in the second of a two-game set with the Mavericks back in February, knocking down 11 triples in a 134-132 loss.
PREDICTION: Golden State -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The statuses and workloads of Doncic and Porzingis will have a big impact on the total for this Western Conference showdown but even beyond those superstars, the Mavs have received solid support from their role players.
Dorian Finney-Smith has upped his production in April, averaging 12.4 points per game with three efforts of 20-plus this month, and big men Dwight Powell and Willie Cauley-Stein –—known more for their defenses efforts — have chipped in on the scoreboard with surprise production. Add to this the instant offense of Trey Burke, who tallied 19 points versus Sacramento last night after riding the pine in the previous six outings.
As for the Warriors, their offense continues to push the tempo — ranked second in pace rating in the NBA — and have leaned into that during this late-season push. Over the past nine games, Golden State is averaging 119.7 points on 49.4 percent shooting per contest.
The Over has almost been automatic when these rivals collide, with the Mavs and Dubs topping the total in both matchups this season and going 9-2 Over/Under in their last 11 head-to-head meetings overall. As mentioned above, the health of Dallas’ standouts will impact where this number goes, so tread lightly with the total.
PREDICTION: Over 225.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Draymond Green is quietly stuffing the stat sheet for the Warriors during this April run.
The point-forward has amassed a total of 26 rebounds and 32 assists in the past two games and is averaging a stat line of 7.6 points, 10.4 assists and 8.3 rebounds over the Dubs’ last nine contests.
Green had twin 15-assist efforts in that two-game set with the Mavs in February and battles a Dallas team ranked 19th in rebound rate, and coming off a defeat to the Kings in which it lost the rebound battle 46-40—including yielding 11 offensive boards to Sacramento.
Draymond’s triple-double prop is a tempting flyer at +900 odds but we’ll stick to the Over on his rebounds + assists market.
PREDICTION: Draymond Green rebounds + assists Over 16.5 (-140)
Mavericks vs Warriors betting card
- Golden State -2.5 (-110)
- Over 225.5 (-110)
- Draymond Green rebounds + assists Over 16.5 (-140)
Picks made on 4/27/2021 at 10:13 a.m. ET
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