The Golden State Warriors will try to avoid falling below the .500 mark when they host the Dallas Mavericks at the Chase Center on Saturday night.
The Warriors are 6-8 since their season-best five-game win streak came to an end, while the Mavericks have won three of their last four overall to stay above the cutoff line for the play-in tournament.
Unfortunately, injuries are dominating the headlines ahead of this tilt, with Luka Doncic (heel) announced as out for Dallas, with Spencer Dinwiddie (knee) questionable. Draymond Green (calf) and Klay Thompson (non-COVID illness) could also each miss their second straight game tonight for Golden State.
How will this battle in the Bay Area play out? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs Warriors on Saturday, February 4.
Mavericks vs Warriors best odds
Mavericks vs Warriors picks and predictions
No matter how you slice it, it’s been a disappointing year for the Golden State Warriors. They’ve yet to be better than two games over .500, and had a losing record as recently as Jan. 15.
Despite their status as underachievers this year, the Warriors are holding as double-digit favorites over the Dallas Mavericks for Saturday night’s showdown. That line may seem ridiculous at first glance, but without Luka Doncic, the Mavericks are a shell of themselves.
Dallas is 0-6 in games without Doncic this year, getting outscored by an average of 12.5 points. Even in Thursday’s 111-106 win over the New Orleans Pelicans — in which Doncic suffered his heel bruise — the Mavs were outscored 49-27 once he left the floor.
The Mavericks beat the Warriors 116-113 in Dallas in their most recent meeting on Nov. 29, but they needed 41 points from Doncic to do so.
Bettors may still be hesitant to lay 10 points in this tilt, but you wouldn’t have to sacrifice as many points in the first-half market. That’s where I’ll be headed for my best bet in this one.
Not only is Golden State second in the NBA in points per game, but they’re also second in first-half points per game (60.7). Dallas is a dismal 24th in first-half points per game on the road this year (55.4). The Dubs also have the Mavs beat when it comes to first-half points allowed per game at home (56.8), compared to their opponent’s road split (59.7).
With Draymond Green and Klay Thompson either out or potentially limited for this tilt, the onus will once again be on Steph Curry to deliver, and he’s handled the pressure adroitly of late. Curry has led the Warriors in scoring in each of his last six games, averaging 31.7 ppg in that span.
My best bet: Warriors 1H -6 (-110 at Caesars)
Looking to do some NBA betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $3,000! Sign Up Now
B) Get one no-sweat NBA same-game parlay every day at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Mavericks vs Warriors spread analysis
There wasn’t much to like about Golden State’s 134-117 road loss to the Denver Nuggets when last seen on Thursday, in which Green and Thompson failed to suit up. But there were a couple of bright spots in that defeat — aside from Curry’s typical brilliance. The first was the effort by big man James Wiseman.
The young center, who didn’t play in 15 straight games, came off the bench and gave the Warriors nine points and two boards in 17 minutes of action. An expanded role could be forthcoming for Wiseman, who averaged 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds in the 2020-21 campaign.
Jordan Poole — one of only two Golden State players to find the floor in all 52 games they’ve played this season (along with Kevon Looney) – had one of his better games of late against Denver, shooting 8-for-15 from the floor. He went 4-of-8 from beyond the arc that night. The more minutes he plays, the more impactful he’ll have to be, especially if Green and Thompson sit out.
Trend bettors should note that the Mavericks are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games, while the Warriors are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
Mavericks vs Warriors Over/Under analysis
Unlike the spread, which hasn’t budged much from its original opening line of Warriors -10, the total has seen plenty of one-sided movement. Bettors are pounding the Under, forcing oddsmakers to adjust the line from as high as 233.5 to as low as 226.0.
A lot of this action likely has to do with the injury report for both sides, Dallas in particular. The Mavericks’ offense will be challenged enough to score without Doncic, but if Spencer Dinwiddie isn’t at 100% or is out tonight, things will be that much worse for them.
Dinwiddie has stepped into a major role for the Mavs, averaging 26 points over his last four games. But he’s listed as questionable for this one with a knee injury. Dallas’ next-leading (healthy) scorer after Dinwiddie would be Tim Hardaway Jr. at a modest 13.5 ppg.
If the Warriors build a comfortable lead on a banged-up Mavericks squad, an equally-ailing Golden State could focus on preserving the health of its players rather than padding the lead late.
The Under has cashed in four straight games involving Dallas, and is 10-4-1 in the Dubs’ last 15 home tilts.
Mavericks vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs the Warriors. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Warriors.
Mavericks vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, February 4, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
