Nets vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: BK Gets Tested

The Brooklyn Nets and Boston Celtics are each putting three-game winning streaks on the line when they face off at TD Garden Wednesday night. 

Both teams are also weathering some ailments and had Tuesday off after picking up wins Monday night. 

With Kevin Durant playing like an MVP and Jayson Tatum now starting to as well, let's break down the matchup with our Nets vs. Celtics picks and predictions for November 24. 

Nets vs Celtics odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line opened with Brooklyn split between a 1.5 and 1-point favorite, currently sitting -1.5 at most books. The total is also a broken consensus, with books opening at either 215.5 or 216.5 and currently offering anywhere in that range. Be sure to shop around for this one. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Nets vs Celtics predictions

• Prediction: Boston +1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 216.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Harden Over 4.5 turnovers (-125)

Predictions made on 11/24/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Nets vs Celtics game info

• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Wednesday, November 24, 2021
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Nets vs Celtics betting preview

Injuries

Nets: Bruce Brown SF (Questionable), Kyrie Irving PG (Out), Joe Harris SG (Out), Nicolas Claxton C (Out).
Celtics: Jaylen Brown G/F (Questionable), Josh Richarson G/F (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Celtics.

Nets vs Celtics picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Both sides come into this game streaking, but it's tough to say that either has really shown a ton of mettle in those wins. Brooklyn and Boston have gotten to cruise through a particularly cupcake portion of their schedules, beating up on injury-riddled rosters and a bunch of non-playoff teams. Brooklyn, in particular, has looked less than stellar despite leading the East. The Nets barely put away the 4-14 Magic last Friday, and have been thumped by the last two +.500 teams they faced. 

Despite its standing, Brooklyn's clearly missing Kyrie Irving. The Nets rank shockingly low as the 14th-rated offense (they were first last season while also dealing with heavy injuries), and while Durant has been scoring with ridiculous efficiency and James Harden is slowly ratcheting up his production, Brooklyn's attack still can seem disjointed at times, and will be without Joe Harris, its best shooter and off-ball spacer, once again.

Also out for Brooklyn are Bruce Brown and Nic Claxton, crucial in this matchup where Brown could handle defensive duty against Jayson Tatum, and Claxton could provide another body against Boston's plus-size frontcourt. The Celtics could be without All-Star Jaylen Brown, who may rest his hamstring after a return to action Monday night, but Boston can find ways to win this game without him. Mainly on defense. 

The Celtics have the NBA's sixth-rated D — shrink that sample to the last ten games and they rise to second. With All-World pest Marcus Smart smothering the point of attack, and defenders that rank between competent and good flanking him, the perimeter is tough to penetrate, while two shot-blocking studs patrol the paint.

Brooklyn has a mostly-pedestrian perimeter defense and little in the way of rim protection between ground-bound Blake Griffin and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Nets are somehow ranked as the NBA's eighth-best defense, but despite tactical improvements from last season's open floodgates, I'm not prepared to concede this is a Top-10 unit. It still fields minus defenders at numerous spots, especially with utility guy Brown out. The Nets are also bleeding on the boards, sinking to the NBA's fifth-worst rebound rate, while Boston has risen from 23rd to 13th in the past two weeks. 

Durant is going to find a way to get his, even against this pesky Celts D, but Boston will make life hell for everyone else, including Harden, whom Smart will be glued to. Harden's been finding ways to get to the line more, but Smart doesn't give up many fouls for such an aggressive defender (2.1 per game, outside the Top 100), and Boston as a team is slightly below league-average in fouls. 

With the added possibility of Brown playing, at home, against a depleted Nets team that hasn't responded well to being tested of late, we're backing the Celtics in this close matchup. 

Prediction: Boston +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Set at 216.5, this line is super close to the combined points per game averages from these teams (217.1). And it's tough to figure out which way to lean. 

The Nets are becoming less and less of a shootout team after they just straight-up overpowered teams on offense last season. They still rank tenth in the NBA in scoring, and Boston's right behind in 12th, but the Celtics defense should be the story of this game. 

Smart on Harden will obviously be a crucial matchup, but Tatum and/or Brown are also plus defenders against Durant, while we'll take the rest of Boston's defenders to quell the supporting BK attack any day of the week. 

Expect this game to be neutrally-paced, with Brooklyn ranking seventh and Boston 22nd. If the Celtics do what we expect and help contain the point of attack, the Nets will have to work for their buckets and bleed more of the clock. Fewer fouls will also mean fewer points, and less clock-stoppage. 

Overall, it's just really hard to trust the Celtics to push a total, especially in a game they likely know they have to win on defense. To put it into perspective, the Celts are 1-10 in regulation against this total in their past 11 games. The lone exception was a national TV date against the Lakers, who were an utter tire fire on defense, giving up 130 points.

We don't love this total, as Brown's return and the Durant Factor leave the door open for more scoring than the matchup suggests, but the Under seems like the safer bet given Boston's current form.

Prediction: Under 216.5 (-110)

Best bet

James Harden doesn't project to have an easy night at the office. 

Not only will he have Smart in his jersey all night, but an effective Celts defense roaming the passing lanes and able to cheat off anyone not named Kevin Durant, with little immediate threat and the safety net of strong rotation.

Even with a slower pace, this profiles as a game where Harden will turn the ball over more than average, which from him this season is 5.0 TOs. Thus, it makes sense that we get his turnovers prop slightly juiced at 4.5 (-125), a price we're happy to pay considering Harden's cleared this total in each of his past seven games. 

Pick: James Harden Over 4.5 turnovers (-125)

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