Nets vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Phoenix's Offensive Woes Continue

A non-conference clash that looked like a potential NBA Finals preview when the schedule was released has lost a bit of its shine, but the NBA odds are still calling for a close contest when the Brooklyn Nets visit the Phoenix Suns on Thursday.

Phoenix sits near the bottom of the Pacific Division due in large part to injuries to the team’s superstars, with the talents of Devin Booker and Chris Paul parked on the sideline. It enters this matchup on a three-game slide and has only one win in the past 10 outings, going 3-7 against the spread during that funk.

Brooklyn is dealing with injury issues of its own, with star scorer Kevin Durant expected to miss the next month and guard Kyrie Irving battling through a sore calf. It's also on a three-game losing skid but expects Irving to be on the floor tonight.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this East vs. West contest and give my best NBA betting picks and predictions for the Nets vs. Suns on January 19.

Nets vs Suns best odds

Nets vs Suns picks and predictions

The Suns' issues are plenty and aren’t easy fixes, especially with some many key cogs out of order. The offense has been a notable sore spot for a team that has had no issues scoring the basketball in recent seasons.

Phoenix is averaging only 101.5 points per game over its last 10 games and boasted efforts of 97, 116, and 106 during this current three-game losing slide. The team shot a dismal 44.9% from the floor in that stretch and while Memphis presented a tough test defensively, Denver and Minnesota aren’t the stingiest opponents out there.

More notable is the pace in which those last three games were played. The Grizzlies and Wolves rank near the top of the pace ratings in terms of tempo, and the trio of games saw Phoenix play at a much quicker rate: jumping from a pace rating of 98.14 to 101.33.

If you mix in the 125-point eruption the Suns had in their last win over Golden State — a game that posted a lightning-quick pace rating of 107.5 vs. a Warriors team that runs the fastest tempo in the NBA — you get an average of 111 points. That’s exactly where oddsmakers have parked Phoenix’s team total for Thursday night, sitting at 111.5 Over/Under.

That slate of up-tempo opponents takes a major downshift in gears against Brooklyn tonight. 

The Nets are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA overall, sitting No. 7 in defensive rating and squeezing host teams for just 111.4 points allowed as a visitor (fifth lowest in the NBA). That prowess is powered in part by a very methodical approach with the basketball, with Brooklyn sitting 21st in pace rating — a touch quicker than the Suns’ 24th-ranked tempo.

Part of that defensive success comes from Brooklyn’s efficiency on offense, which has taken a downturn since Durant got hurt.

With the Nets not making as many shots, and forcing foes to start possessions off the inbounds, they’ve given up 106, 109, and 112 points the past three games after holding opponents to an average of less than 107 in the five games prior to that losing bump. 

However, Brooklyn is one of the better teams at limiting spot-up shooting offenses (holding those attacks to 0.99 points per play) and Phoenix relies on those playsets in over a quarter of its trips down the floor. The Nets also do a fantastic job defending the pick-and-roll, which is also a prominent feature of Monty Williams’ attack.

The Suns' team total seems a touch too high due to their output being inflated against weaker defensive opponents and more up-tempo play in the past four games. Brooklyn knows it needs to be much tighter on defense, without the scoring punch of Durant to lean on, which is something Kyrie Irving has preached during this three-game slide.

My best bet: Suns' team total Under 111.5 (-121 at Pinnacle)

Nets vs Suns spread analysis

With so many big-name talents wearing street clothes for this contest, oddsmakers opened Brooklyn as a 1.5-point road favorite late Wednesday evening.

That spread tap danced around pick’em at some books overnight, but with Irving probable to play and Phoenix in a miserable slump, the market is settling in with the Nets around that opening spread. According to Covers Consensus, 68% of the early picks are siding the visitor.

Brooklyn has lost the last three games since Durant went down with a knee injury, seeing a major downtick in its offensive efforts.

It was averaging 114.6 points per game on the year but has mustered outputs of 98, 98, and 102 points over the past three outings while shooting a collective 43.3% from the field — a massive downtick from its season rate of 50.6% which sits No. 2 in the league.

Irving missed the loss at San Antonio on Tuesday due to a sore calf and has struggled to set the tone offensively in the prior two outings, shooting a collective 16-for-44 in those showings. Brooklyn not only needs a lift from Irving but from guys like Ben Simmons, who is only averaging 4.7 points per game on the year.

The situation seems more dire in Phoenix. The Suns are marching out a makeshift lineup without the likes of Booker, as well as key contributors Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, and Landry Shamet. Phoenix will have forward Cam Johnson available for the first time since November after he missed time due to a knee injury.

The Suns are a much better team at home and those past three losses all came on the road. Phoenix is 14-7 SU and 11-10 ATS inside the Footprint Center (vs. 7-17 SU on the road), boasting an average margin of +5.0 points per home stand (compared to -3.6 as a visitor).

Brooklyn has been one of the better road teams in the NBA at 14-9 SU and 12-11 ATS. However, without Durant in the lineup, this is a completely different animal. 

Nets vs Suns Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under total for Thursday’s game hit the board as high as 224.5 points and has ticked down to as low as 221.5 at some sportsbooks.

A Durant-less Nets attack has looked flat during their three-game losing skid, which has led to three straight Under results. In fact, even before Durant went down, Brooklyn was pumping out Under winners thanks to its defense, boasting a 1-8 Over/Under count in the past nine games.

The Nets are No. 7 in advanced defensive rating and play one of the slower tempos in the league, sitting 21st in pace rating. Brooklyn continued to battle on defense without Durant the past three games, going below totals of 229.5, 229, and 224.5. 

Phoenix hasn’t been as stout defensively and hemorrhaged buckets during its respective three-game slide, allowing 136, 121, and 126 points in that span — be it against the likes of Memphis, Minnesota, and Denver. 

Offensively, the Suns actually run a more methodical tempo than the Nets, sitting 24th in pace rating and have massively struggled to score points during this 1-9 SU slump, ranked dead last in advanced offensive rating in that span and averaging a league-low 101.5 points per game. 

But due to a terrible defense, the Under has only prevailed in six of those 10 contests with the total going Over the number in three of their last four games against closing totals of 231.5, 223.5, 226.5, and 230 points.

Brooklyn owns a 17-26 O/U mark on the season (best Under bet), including a 9-14 O/U count on the road. Phoenix is 21-24 O/U on the year with an 8-13 O/U record at home. Covers Consensus shows 64% of early picks on the Over tonight. 

Nets vs Suns betting trend to know

Brooklyn is 17-26 Over/Under on the season, including a 5-9 O/U count as road favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Suns.

Nets vs Suns game info

Nets vs Suns key injuries

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