The Denver Nuggets head to Hollywood to face the Los Angeles Clippers in NBA action on Friday night.
NBA betting odds opened with the Clips as slim 1-point home underdogs but with the questionable status of Denver's Nikola Jokic, the line jumped the fence to favor the Clips at -2. That number has since grown to -4.5 after reports came out that the two-time MVP was unlikely to play.
Can the Nuggets get it done on offense without their All-NBA center? I let you know with my best free Nuggets vs. Clippers NBA picks and predictions for January 13.
Nuggets vs Clippers best odds
Nuggets vs Clippers picks and predictions
The biggest unknown about betting on this game is the status of MVP favorite Nikola Jokic, who is listed as questionable due to injury management for his wrist.
Recent reports indicate that Jokic will be unavailable to play, which has seen the total tick down from 225.5 to 221.5. Given that the Nuggets score an incredible 16.9 points per 100 possessions more with Jokic on the floor according to Cleaning The Glass, that might not be enough of a drop in the total.
Don't forget that the Nuggets played three games without Jokic earlier this season due to COVID-19 protocols. They averaged just 100 ppg on 44.4% shooting during those contests, significantly worse than their season averages of 117 ppg on 50.9 FG%.
The Clippers are tied for third in the NBA in scoring defense with 110 ppg allowed with that number dropping to 105.1 ppg at home.
On the other side of the floor, the Clips have really struggled to get buckets and the absence of Paul George hasn't helped. The Clips are just 28th in the league in scoring with 109.2 ppg and are averaging a league-worst 105.6 ppg at home. Expect a low-scoring contest here and play the Under.
My best bet: Under 221.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Nuggets vs Clippers spread analysis
No player is as important to his team as Jokic but even with him in the lineup, the Nuggets are just a .500 team on the road. Few venues provide more of a home-court advantage than high-altitude Denver and while the Nuggets are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games all of those wins came on the road.
With Jokic unlikely to suit up, the Nuggets will lean on point guard Jamal Murray, who is expected to play despite exiting their last game with an ankle injury.
Murray averages 18.4 points and 5.4 assists per game while Aaron Gordon (16.5 ppg, 58.7 FG%) and Michael Porter Jr. (16.0 ppg, 40.6 3PT%) are excellent complementary scorers.
The Nuggets have the highest offensive rating in the league but will take a massive step back without Jokic, who is a highly-efficient scorer and the best passing big man in NBA history.
The Clippers snapped a six-game losing streak with a 110-103 victory against the Mavs on Tuesday night.
Clippers coach Tyronn Lue has been tinkering with lineups as he looks to get L.A. back on track. He has started Terance Mann at point guard in each of the last two games while Reggie Jackson has been phased out and John Wall has been reduced to a role player.
Their offense has become heavily reliant on Kawhi Leonard (18.2 ppg) but he can't do it all for a team that ranks 22nd in the league in turnover rate and 23rd in field goal percentage.
Nuggets vs Clippers Over/Under analysis
It is worth mentioning that the Nuggets are also worse defensively without Jokic. That said, while they allow 8.0 points per 100 possessions fewer with the Joker on the floor his impact is clearly felt to a greater degree on offense.
Even with Jokic in their lineup, the Nuggets have been far worse offensively on the road where they average 114.2 ppg as compared to their 119.8 ppg at home.
Meanwhile, the Clippers have been out of sync on offense all season and have looked lost without George, who has been sidelined for the last three games with a hamstring injury.
Add those offensive struggles to a team that plays at a slower tempo and it's easy to see why the Under is 22-5-1 in the Clippers' last 28 games at home.
Nuggets vs Clippers betting trend to know
The Under is 36-13-2 in Denver's last 51 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Clippers.
Nuggets vs Clippers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, January 13, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
