Nuggets vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Joker & Co. Snag Win in South Beach

Monday, February 13 features a matchup between Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets and Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat. The Nuggets remain at the top of the Western Conference standings and have picked up their defensive intensity recently, which is a scary prospect for other potential contenders.

Meanwhile, Miami is doing its best to pass the now Kevin Durant-less Nets in the standings for fifth place (and thus avoid one of the East's elite in the first round) while also fending off the Knicks, who are hot on their heels in seventh place. 

Our NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Heat believe despite coming in as underdogs, Denver should come away with a victory tonight.

Nuggets vs Heat best odds

Nuggets vs Heat picks and predictions

As with most matchups this time of year, injuries and availability loom large in Monday’s matchup between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat.

Miami, as usual, has an injury report that stretches into the double digits. In terms of critical players, they might be without Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo and are certain to be without Kyle Lowry. The Nuggets are also potentially going to be without Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon. 

Of the players that are guaranteed to play, that means Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. for the Nuggets and Jimmy Butler for the Heat. That makes this line pretty puzzling with the Heat holding the advantage of as much as -2 at some sportsbooks. It also makes a Nuggets moneyline bet quite appealing.

The marginal gains that Miami has made on offense recently (they’ve played merely at the level of a Bottom-10 offense rather than Bottom 5) do not make up for their slippage on defense. They’re consistently inconsistent, which is to be expected given the amount of lineup roulette Erik Spoelstra is forced into on a nightly basis. 

The Nuggets, by comparison, are a bastion of consistency, led of course by one of the most consistent superstars ever in Nikola Jokic. Jokic has only shot under 50% in a single game this season, which given his nightly offensive burden, is more incredible the more you think about it.

Miami’s defense has proven suffocating for opposing guard play, but they haven’t done as much to slow down traditional dominant bigs like Joel Embiid or Jokic. Bam Adebayo is an outstanding Defensive Player of the Year-caliber defender, but that hasn’t prevented Jokic from having a triple-double in three of the last four games he’s played against Bam.

Spearheaded by Jokic and with so much uncertainty hanging over availability on both squads, I believe the best value for Monday’s game lies with Nuggets moneyline.

My best bet: Nuggets moneyline (+105 at bet365)

Nuggets vs Heat spread analysis

The Nuggets have had a chokehold on the top offensive spot this season, and their 119.1 offensive rating is nearly a full point clear of the second-place Kings. What makes media and oddsmakers skeptical of Denver is their defense, which is merely average.

But over the last two weeks, their offense has remained at its NBA-best level while creeping toward the Top 7 on defense. That’s only a seven-game sample, but Denver is playing the kind of two-way basketball that could make them a champion and should see them cover against Miami tonight.

The Nuggets are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games, which stands in stark contrast to where the Heat are. Miami has been one of the three worst teams ATS in terms of spread differential on the season, per Cleaning the Glass, and that was only worsened in the past two weeks where they’ve underperformed their lines by 2.7 points on average. 

Despite making an impressive push for homecourt advantage, the Heat have been a rollercoaster when it comes to covering this season. They simply can’t handle prosperity. They’re now a miserable 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win.

Head-to-head record trends are tricky in the NBA because the cast of characters for most teams shifts so much on a year-to-year basis, but in this instance, the top-end talent on both the Heat and the Nuggets have been relatively stable for the last few seasons. So, the Nuggets going 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami means a bit more than it might otherwise.

Nuggets vs Heat Over/Under analysis

This is one of the lower totals I’ve seen lately, coming in at just 223.5. Given Denver’s dominant offensive play, that’s showing an incredible amount of faith in the Heat defense, but is it warranted? Recent history suggests no.

When these two teams last played all the way back on December 30, a game which resulted in 243 total points. The Over is also 4-0 in their last four meetings, so that was not an isolated incident.

I don’t think that Denver’s improvements on the defensive end are so substantial that they’re going to lock down the Heat either, so this line does seem primed to rise until tip-off. On top of that, the Nuggets are riding a string of Overs of late. The Over has cashed in five straight games when the Nuggets have played against teams with a winning record and is 5-2-1 in their last eight games overall. 

If there’s reason to be skeptical it’s that the Heat have been playing a lot of games in the mud lately, which has seen the Under go 8-3 in their last 11 games overall as well as 6-1 in their previous seven games at home.

Nuggets vs Heat betting trend to know

The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Heat.

Nuggets vs Heat game info

Nuggets vs Heat key injuries

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