Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs struck first in the opener of their home-and-home series with Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets winning outright in a back-and-forth battle 113-110 as 6-point road dogs on Friday night.
Now, the matchup shifts to San Antonio, and my Nuggets vs Spurs predictions look at whether Wemby can lead his team to back-to-back upsets on back-to-back nights. Or will Denver exact some revenge?
Here are my NBA picks for this Western Conference showdown on Saturday, Jan. 4.
Nuggets vs Spurs prediction
My best bet
Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Victor Wembanyama continues to impress in his sophomore season for the San Antonio Spurs. His latest feat was taking down three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets.
Wembanyama went off for 35 points on 14-22 (63.6%) shooting while hauling down a ridiculous 18 rebounds to go along with four assists and two blocks.
And the Spurs needed all the Wemby they could get in order to withstand a 41-point barrage from Jokic. The Joker also matched Wemby’s 18 boards and dished out nine dimes for good measure.
So, what can we expect in the encore one night later? This time in San Antonio.
Well, if Wemby is going to keep putting up monster numbers he’s going to have to keep getting fed the ball from point guard Chris Paul. The future Hall of Famer has done exactly what he wanted to and helped the development of the Spurs phenomenon, adding to his assist totals while he’s at it.
Paul comes into this one averaging 8.4 assists per game this season, and that is up to 8.6 in the month of December, which includes him dishing out 11 dimes in last night’s game against the Nuggets, and there’s no reason why he can’t do it again tonight.
While Denver continues to be an offensive juggernaut thanks to Jokic, the defense has slipped a bit this season. The Nuggets enter this game ranked 20th in the NBA in defensive rating, and breaking down that defense with an extra pass has been very effective. That’s because the Nuggets rank dead last in opponent assists per game.
CP3’s assist total for this rematch is set at 8.5. With the Over sitting at even money and Paul topping that number eight times in his last 15 games, I love backing him to do it in back-to-back nights against a suspect Nuggets defense.
Nuggets vs Spurs same-game parlay
Chris Paul Over 8.5 Assists
Michael Porter Jr. Over 6.5 Rebounds
Spurs +3.5
The win last night continued the trend of San Antonio playing really good basketball lately. The Spurs are 5-3 in their last eight games overall and are an impressive 8-0 against the spread during that stretch. Four of those games were as underdogs, including last night’s matchup in Denver.
Part of the reason for that is due to San Antonio’s defense. With Wemby anchoring the middle, the Spurs have made leaps at that end of the floor and rank 14th in defensive rating. And with Wemby being able to go blow-for-blow with Jokic, the Spurs are able to match up well with the Nuggets. Let’s take the Spurs to cover another spread.
But one place the Spurs can improve is on the boards. Outside of Wembanyama, they aren’t a great rebounding team. San Antonio ranks 15th in rebounding rate and 23rd in opponent rebounds per game.
Even with his monster performances on the boards, there is little value with Jokic here. Instead, give me Michael Porter Jr. to go Over 6.5 rebounds. He is averaging 6.4 rebounds per game this season and this is listed at even money.
He’s played below this number recently, but this matchup is good, and our Covers Prop Projections have him pegged at 7.2 rebounds tonight.
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Nuggets vs Spurs odds
Nuggets vs Spurs live odds
Nuggets vs Spurs opening odds
- Spread: Denver -2 | San Antonio +2
- Moneyline: Denver -140 | San Antonio +120
- Over/Under: Over 239 | Under 239
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line opened with the Nuggets as 2-point road favorites but that number seemed a little off with last night's line in Denver closing at 6. Since then it has moved as high as Nuggets -4 before settling at 3.5.
- The Spurs have been a great bet lately, thanks in part to an improved defense and an incredible Wemby hot streak. He is averaging 31.9 points, 10.8 rebounds and 4.9 blocks during that stretch.
- The total hit the board at 239 and bettors were quick to jump on the Under, moving the number down to 236.5 as of Saturday afternoon.
- This is already two points lower than the closing total of 238.5 from last night, which makes sense considering that game played 15.5 points lower than that number.
Nuggets vs Spurs trend
The Spurs have covered the spread in eight straight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Spurs.
How to watch Nuggets vs Spurs
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ALT2, FDSN SW, TSN |
Nuggets vs Spurs latest injuries
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