The No. 14 Houston Cougars look to remain undefeated in league play as they host the TCU Horned Frogs on Monday night.
TCU picked up a close 63-62 win over Kansas State on Saturday, but the oddsmakers are nonplussed, establishing Houston as an 18.5-point favorite.
TCU vs Houston prediction
My best bet
Houston -18.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This line might stand out at first glance, as 18.5 is a lot of points in a conference game. Alas, it’s the Houston Cougars — a destroyer of worlds during the regular season and a team comfortable squeezing the life out of its opponents with its suffocating defense and relentless rebounding.
Don’t let the fact Houston is ranked outside of the Top 10 fool you. This is still one of the nation’s best teams as it is seemingly every year under Kelvin Sampson. KenPom agrees — the Cougars rank third overall and have elite numbers on both ends of the court (14th in adjusted offensive efficiency, second on defense).
They had one of the most impressive showings of the weekend when they throttled a good BYU team 86-55. Pregame, it seemed as though BYU could pose some issues as it ranks second nationally in rebounding rate (58%) and theoretically could compete with the Cougars on the boards.
Sampson’s squad had other plans, winning the rebounding battle 33 to 18 and shooting 49.2% from the floor compared to 37.5% for their opponent. Good luck getting one over on this team, especially when they’re playing at Fertitta Center.
Jamie Dixon’s TCU Horned Frogs check in at 73rd overall in KenPom and don’t have the offensive firepower (155th in adjusted offensive efficiency) to present many issues for Houston’s elite defense. The Frogs rank 142nd in rebounding percentage (50.9%) and forecast to be limited to a lot of tough first looks without second-chance opportunities.
Houston is rolling with LJ Cryer (14.6 ppg) and Emanuel Sharp (14.0 ppg) leading the scoring charge and big men J’Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler doing the dirty work. This is a vintage Sampson team, and we know what to expect — blowing out inferior opponents while racking up gaudy analytics.
This is an opportunity for Houston to show out at home against a poor shooting TCU team (43.2%) that doesn’t rebound particularly well. That’s a recipe for disaster, and the Frogs will likely be in a world of terror for 40 minutes on Monday night.
TCU vs Houston same-game parlay
Houston -18.5
Under 128.5
Houston plays at an excruciating pace, ranking 361st in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. The Cougars want to play fearsome defense the length of the court, force you into either a turnover or a tough shot, rebound the heck out of the ball — and then slow things down on offense.
This style of limiting possessions and maximizing them on both ends of the court has worked wonders for Sampson teams in the past, and that’s not going to change any time soon until the magic wears off.
TCU is going to find it hard to score. The Horned Frogs are one of the worst 2-point shooting teams in the country, ranking 304th by converting 48.6% of their looks inside the arc.
They aren’t particularly adept from long range (33.8%) and will find open looks few and far between as Houston ranks first in 3-point field goal percentage vs. the average opponent per Haslametrics.
TCU is salty enough on the defensive side of the court (25th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency) that I’m betting this game to stay Under the low total of 128.5.
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TCU vs Houston odds
TCU vs Houston live odds
TCU vs Houston opening odds
- Spread: TCU +18.5 | Houston -18.5
- Moneyline: TCU +1550 | Houston -4000
- Over/Under: Over 128 | Under 128
Odds courtesy of bet365.
TCU vs Houston betting trend to know
TCU is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for TCU vs. Houston.
How to watch TCU vs Houston
| Location: | Fertitta Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Monday, 1-6-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN 2 |
TCU vs Houston key injuries
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