Nuggets vs Lakers Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Murray Flips Playmaking Switch

The No. 1 seed has a 3-0 series lead over the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference finals. Makes sense.

But slap the names on the jerseys and folks are stunned to see the Denver Nuggets dominate the Los Angeles Lakers in this fashion.

The Nuggets own a net rating of +7.0 for the series and are pegged as 3-point road underdogs as they go for the series sweep in L.A. tonight. Denver is coming off an impressive 119-108 win inside Crypto.com Arena, handing Los Angeles its first home loss since March 26.

I dissect the point spread and Over/Under total for Game 4 of the Western Conference finals and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Lakers below. Be sure to also check out Tom Oldfield's three favorite Game 4 player prop picks!

Nuggets vs Lakers Game 4 best odds

Nuggets vs Lakers Game 4 picks and predictions

It’s rare that the Los Angeles Lakers find themselves without the best player on the floor in most matchups. It’s “Jimmy Hoffa jousting with Sasquatch while riding unicorns” rare that the Lakers don’t have the two best players on the floor, but here we are.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have been blinding supernovas in the first three games of the Western Conference Finals, with that pair outshining L.A.’s stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. And Murray is perhaps upstaging his teammate and two-time MVP with his scoring efforts through three games.

The Denver Nuggets point guard has once again found another gear in the postseason, notching a grand total of 105 points heading into Monday’s Game 4, including twin 37-point performances in the previous two contests.

With Murray shouldering more of the scoring load, his role as a facilitator has taken a hit. He’s finished with assist totals of five, five, and six dimes through the opening three games, which has in turn stunted his assist prop to 5.5 for Game 4.

Murray averaged 6.5 helpers against Phoenix in the conference semifinals and 6.4 dimes in the opening round set with Minnesota, following up a regular-season campaign in which he dished out an average of 6.2 assists an outing.

The Game 4 projections all call for more than 5.5 assists from Murray tonight, with a ceiling of 6.7 assists from some mainstream models. My number brings that back to earth a bit, with 6.4 assists forecasted for the Canadian kid from Kitchener.

Los Angeles can’t afford Murray to get into the same rhythm that’s torched their defense the past two games, with Denver’s perimeter star knocking down 11 of his last 25 3-point attempts. Expect the Lakers to play inside Murray’s shorts tonight, getting their heels above the arc and pressuring him to give up the ball.

Murray is also a master of dribble penetration and has exploited L.A.’s weakness to aggressive guards. He’ll look to blow past the tighter coverage, draw the help defense attacking the key and find the gaps in the Lakers’ defensive rotations for easy dump-offs and kick-out corner triples.

Shop around for the best price on Murray Over 5.5 assists as some shops have jumped to -140 juice and higher for Game 4. There are a number of books hovering between -120 and -125 for the prop bet. 

My best bet: Jamal Murray Over 5.5 assists (-120)

Nuggets vs Lakers Game 4 same-game parlay

Jamal Murray Over 5.5 assists (-142)

Jamal Murray Under 26.5 points (-115)

LeBron James Under 8.5 assists (-102)

+532 at FanDuel

Los Angeles can’t win tonight if Murray gets going again. It can trade two-pointers with Jokic but when Murray is making triples, the shit-shooting Lakers can’t keep up. They'll throw the kitchen sink at Murray, making him a passer and his scoring projections are all well below his inflated total of 26.5 points.

My number says 21.9 points from Murray and no mainstream models are higher than 23.1, which is too much of a difference with the prop to ignore. Given his red-hot play, this Under is going to be tough to stomach on every Denver possession, but whoever said gambling was comfortable...

Another prop total pegged way too high for Game 4 is LeBron’s assist mark. His assist Over/Under has bounced between 5.5 and 6.5 for most of the postseason but now sits at 8.5 dimes with James amassing 31 assists in three games. My Game 4 projection is at 6.4 assists and no other models have him handing out more than seven tonight. You think LeBron is passing away the ball in this do-or-die Game 4? Nope.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nuggets vs Lakers Game 4 spread and Over/Under analysis

Following the Game 3 loss at home, NBA odds installed the Lakers as big as 4-point favorites facing elimination in Game 4. The betting markets wouldn’t have it and quickly hacked that spread down to as low as L.A. -3 on Monday morning.

This is a significant slimming from the closing number of Lakers -5.5 in Game 3, in which Los Angeles started slow with a 12-point deficit in the first quarter. The Lakers would battle to tie the game in the third quarter but ran out of steam against a Denver offense that made 50% of its shots from the floor and received double figures in points from five different players. Depth has been the difference on offense in this series.

Defense, on the other hand, has been L.A.’s calling card in the playoffs, especially at home where it owns an advanced rating of 101.6 this postseason (lowest in the playoffs). That anchored a once-unblemished record inside Crypto.com Arena, where the Lakers boast a +13.7 net rating in the NBA Playoffs (6-1 ATS).

However, bad starts have plagued Los Angeles in this series and left LeBron & Co. to claw their way back all game, only to run out of gas in the closing minutes.

Like a stale Oreo, the middle has still been sweet to Purple and Gold bettors (+11.6 net rating from 2Q-3Q) but it’s jammed between two lifeless crumbling cookies. Los Angeles lugs a monstrous -28.3 net rating in the first quarter of the Western Conference Finals so far, then wilts in the final frame with a metric of -10.6.

The Game 4 total opened as big as 225 points but has since trimmed to 224 at some sharper books. This number is closer to the Game 2 total after the Game 1 and 3 totals closed at 222 points. Saturday’s 119-108 final score played Over the number, making the series count 2-1 O/U.

After a thrilling offensive eruption in Game 1, with Denver winning 132-126 and the teams both firing at a 55% rate from the field, the scoring has settled down and defense has staked its claim the past two contests – well at least the Nuggets’ defense.

Los Angeles is shooting 44.6% from the floor in the previous two outings, including a chilly 18-for-62 mark from beyond the arc (29%). LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Austin Reaves have been consistent producers for L.A. but haven’t received much help from the rest of the Lakers’ lineup, accounting for more than 68% of the Lakers’ 108 points in Game 3.

Home court has produced Under results for L.A. since swapping out their roster in mid-February. The Lakers are 8-14 Over/Under in their last 22 home games overall, including a 3-4 O/U count in the playoffs. The Nuggets are 4-2 O/U on the road in the postseason.

Nuggets vs Lakers betting trend to know

Denver is 15-8 ATS as an underdog this season, including 11-8 ATS as a road pup. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers.

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