The Denver Nuggets have split their last six games as some minor injuries begin to pile up, but it’s the Los Angeles Lakers who will have more to prove on Wednesday as they continue to figure out how to survive an injury to LeBron James.
While the loss of James may make this one feel unattainable, my Nuggets vs. Lakers predictions will explain why L.A.’s defense could shine here while its offense keeps humming against a team that has had an abundance of issues defensively.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Wednesday, March 19.
Nuggets vs Lakers prediction
My best bet: Lakers moneyline (+115 at bet365)
My analysis
While LeBron James has been an excellent on-ball defender for most of his career and has continued to play well on that end this season, his absence could wind up being a good thing for this Los Angeles Lakers defense. Opponents are taking fewer shots from 3 when he’s been off the floor, opting to shoot from the mid-range more often and seeing a sizable drop in field goal percentage from both zones.
That’s a useful bit of information here, considering the Lakers rank just 16th in defensive efficiency this month and will be tasked with slowing a Denver Nuggets team which ranks ninth on offense over the same span.
Denver is listing Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic as questionable for this one on top of it all, a big deal given all three have missed games recently and would seem to be dealing with legitimate concerns.
The Lakers have kept pace with the Nuggets offensively this month, which would lead us to believe they’ve got a great shot to pick up a win here if this trend on defense without James is real. Denver’s offense could already be a concern with the health issues, and while James has added so much on offense things shouldn’t be all that difficult against the sixth-worst defense over the last three weeks.
Denver has relied heavily on its shooting to maintain excellent numbers on offense, and has shot from the long mid-range with the sixth-highest frequency in the league this month. With L.A. sitting atop the league in mid-range defense and performing even better when James has been on the bench, its defense should hold firm here.
It may be slightly vulnerable at the rim, but offensively things should set up brilliantly. The Lakers are taking more shots than nearly every team from 3-point range, and the Nuggets continue to be one of the weakest teams when it comes to stopping the outside shot.
Even without James, there’s plenty to love about this matchup.
Nuggets vs Lakers same-game parlay
Lakers moneyline
Luka Doncic Over 9.5 assists
Austin Reaves Over 3.5 made threes
This parlay should be rather academic. First off, we’ve got a Nuggets defense which has allowed the seventh-most assists per 100 possessions in the month of March and has looked awful across the board, allowing plenty of shots to fall from beyond the arc and at the rim.
L.A. may stand as a weaker offense without James, but with its fixation towards the outside shot I have no doubts that Doncic will rack up helpers in a hurry with an Assist Rate over 42% this month and 22 total helpers in two games without James.
The other trend to follow here is the importance of Austin Reaves when it comes to scoring the ball. He’s taken at least 10 shots from 3 in his last three games, nailing four shots in four straight games, and will meet a Nuggets team ranked 26th against the three this month.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Nuggets vs Lakers odds
Nuggets vs Lakers live odds
Nuggets vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Denver -1 (-110) | Los Angeles +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver -135 | Los Angeles +115
- Over/Under: Over 232.5 | Under 232.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line briefly flipped with the Lakers giving as many as two points on Tuesday night before the Nuggets were restored as favorites early Wednesday.
- The Nuggets have taken on 59% of the bets and 69% of the handle wagered on the spread.
- The total has moved as high as 234 and as low as 231.5 but currently resides exactly where it opened.
- The Over has accounted for 72% of the tickets and 82% of the money.
Nuggets vs Lakers trend
The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 27 games (+19.65 Units / 46% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers.
How to watch Nuggets vs Lakers
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Nuggets vs Lakers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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