As the series swings to Crypto.com Arena tonight, the Los Angeles Lakers hope homecourt takes the sting out of blowing a 20-point lead and falling behind 0-2 to the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference quarterfinals.
Following that crushing loss, my Nuggets vs. Lakers predictions target an unlikely contributor to help the Lakers stay close. Los Angeles opened as a short home pup but is now a small favorite, with desperation fueling that market move.
Below, I give my best NBA picks for Thursday, April 25.
Nuggets vs Lakers predictions
My best bet
Austin Reaves Over 13.5 points (-120 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Los Angeles Lakers desperately need their role players to show up in Game 3.
Guys like Rui Hachimura, D’Angelo Russell, and Austin Reaves were MIA at times in the opening two games — the latter of whom finished with only nine points in the Game 2 catastrophe.
Reaves finished Monday’s game going 4-for-11 from the field — including 1-for5 from 3-point range — and failed to get to the foul line. That stumble comes on the heels of a 13-point showing in Game 1, in which the spunky shooting guard shot 5-for-9 (2-for-6 on 3-pointers) in 37 minutes.
He averaged almost 16 points in the regular season and enjoys playing at home, where his shooting percentage spiked to 49.2% from the floor and 39.1% from distance, compared to just a 34.5% 3-point clip away from L.A.
His player projections for Game 3 vary depending on the models, but all come in north of 13 points, and the majority call for 15+ with a ceiling of 17.1. My number is a bit more conservative, bubbling out to 15.2 tonight.
The NBA player props odds have his Over/Under pegged at 13.5 points, the lowest scoring total Reaves has faced in a long time. Looking at his last 10 outings, his points prop has bounced between 14.5 and 16.5 O/U.
Some sharper books are dealing the Over 13.5 as pricey as -134. However, you can find a more affordable ask — as low as -120 — on the same total if you shop around.
Nuggets vs Lakers same-game parlay (SGP)
Austin Reaves Over 13.5 points
Rui Hachimura Over 4.5 rebounds
LeBron James Over 1.5 threes
Reaves will look to attack on offense and a few of his scoring forecasts call for outputs in the 16-17 range.
Hachimura’s offensive struggles find him contributing in other ways. He was big on the boards for L.A. down the stretch and I call for five-plus rebounds tonight.
LeBron James may have to take over if the rest of the Lakers don’t show up. James has made three triples in each of the first two games, shooting a collective 6-for-11 from downtown.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nuggets vs Lakers odds
Nuggets vs Lakers live odds
Get the latest Nuggets vs Lakers NBA playoff odds for Game 3.
Nuggets vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Denver -1 (-110) | Los Angeles +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver -120 | Los Angeles +100
- Over/Under: Over 215.5 (-110) | Under 215.5 (-110)
Nuggets vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- NBA odds opened with Denver as a short road favorite. As of Thursday morning, you can find this spread anywhere from PK to L.A. -1.5.
- The total hit between 215.5 and 216 points. That’s a notable adjustment from the first two games in Denver, which closed with totals of 226.5 and 223 points, with both finals going Under.
- That number dipped to as low as 214 points before buyback on the Over brought the total back to 216.5.
- Covers Consensus data shows 52% of picks siding with the Lakers in Game 3, however, BetMGM sportsbooks show one-sided support for Denver, drawing more than 70% of the total ticket count and money wagered on the road team.
- BetMGM is reporting 52% of bets and 60% of handle on the Over in Game 3. Covers Consensus concurs with 56% of picks backing the Over as well.
Nuggets vs Lakers trend
The Lakers fall into the famed first-half "0-2 trend" as a home team down 0-2 on their own court in Game 3. This used to be a very profitable system, hitting higher than 60% from 2007 to 2017, but books have gotten smart to it and pad the 1H lines.
Since 2018, home teams down 0-2 in the series are just 18-18-2 versus the 1H spread. Tonight’s 1H line has L.A. laying -1.5 compared to a full-game spread of -1. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers.
Nuggets vs Lakers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, 4-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Nuggets vs Lakers latest injuries
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