Nuggets vs Raptors Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Murray Shows Out in Homecoming

The Toronto Raptors got a much-needed win against a shorthanded Charlotte Hornets team last time out. But to say tonight’s opponent is a step up in class would be an understatement, as the Raptors welcome the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets to town.

The Nuggets enter this game in a groove, winning four of their last five straight up and against the spread. So, it’s no surprise to see the NBA odds having them laying four points against what has been a horribly inconsistent Raptors team.

Will Toronto’s suddenly slipping defensive standards be able to contain not only two-time MVP Nikola Jokic but Kitchener, Ontario native Jamal Murray in his homecoming?

I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Raptors on Wednesday, December 20.

Nuggets vs Raptors odds

Nuggets vs Raptors predictions

It isn’t a stretch to say the Toronto Raptors were a little lucky on Monday night. They came out sluggish against a Charlotte Hornets squad that was missing four-fifths of its starting lineup and trailed all the way until the fourth quarter. 

Luckily, the undermanned Hornets gassed out in the final frame, and the Raptors were able to pull away late. But those types of performances haven’t been unusual for this Raps team this season.

That win was just their third in their last seven games, and the reason for the slump isn’t what you might think. Toronto was never going to be known as a good shooting team the way the roster is currently constructed. However, I’m not sure if many expected the Raptors’ defense to be a problem.

Toronto was supposed to be able to hang its hat at that end of the floor, but that hasn’t been the case so far. In fact, the Raptors rank 24th in defensive rating and dead last in the NBA when it comes to opponent 3-point shooting percentage since the start of December.

And do you know what the Nuggets have? Shooters. Denver ranks seventh in effective field goal percentage this season.

Let’s look no further than Canada’s own Jamal Murray. The Nuggets guard got off to a fantastic start before suffering a hamstring injury that cost him nearly a month of action. But since Murray’s been back, he’s been on fire from beyond the arc.

Murray is shooting a crazy good 45.2% from 3-point range over his last seven games, hitting 2.7 of his 6.0 attempts from deep over that stretch. He’s also hit three or more threes in four of his last seven games.

While the Raptors don’t give up a ton of attempts from three, those looks have generally been open ones, as they rank 22nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. And as noted, it has been even worse lately.

I’m backing Murray to put on a good shooting performance in his homecoming and betting the Over on his 2.5 made threes tonight against the Raptors.

My best bet: Jamal Murray Over 2.5 made threes (-105 at PointsBet)

Nuggets vs Raptors same-game parlay

Jamal Murray Over 2.5 made threes,

Nuggets team total Over 116.5

Pascal Siakam Under 22.5 points

+500 at PointsBet

Murray won’t be the only Nuggets player getting buckets tonight.

I’ve noted how the Raptors have surprisingly struggled on defense, particularly over the last month, and now they’ll arguably face one of their toughest tests of the season. Denver ranks seventh in both offensive rating and eFG%.

And since Murray returned to the Nuggets lineup 10 games ago, they're averaging 119.2 points per game and have put up 117 points or more seven times during that stretch. Add the Nuggets to go Over their team total of 116.5.

While the Nuggets will be letting it fly, I’m not sure the same can be said for the Raptors. Denver is a sneaky good defensive team, ranking 10th in defensive rating, and seventh in opponent effective field goal percentage. They're particularly tough on the perimeter, where they rank third in opponent 3-point attempts and 10th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. 

So, I think this could be a tough matchup for Pascal Siakam, who seems to be very hit-or-miss when it comes to his scoring output this season. With a point total of 22.5 for this matchup, a number he’s gone Over in just four of his last 11 games, I’m saying miss.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Nuggets vs Raptors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Raptors opened this matchup as 4-point home underdogs, and that’s where the line remains as of early Wednesday afternoon.

Now, generally, Toronto has performed better at home this season, but they're just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games and have struggled when stepping up in competition. The Raps have played nine games this season against teams ranked Top 10 in net rating. They are 2-7 straight up and 3-6 ATS in those matchups and haven’t won one of those matchups since a Nov. 1 date with the Milwaukee Bucks. 

The Nuggets rank seventh in net rating, I’d lean toward laying the points with the road team.

The total has been bet up slightly from the opening number of 228 to 229.5. As noted, I like the Nuggets to do some scoring tonight. But I’m not sure the Raptors would do their part to send this one Over the number.

Their inconsistent shooting (they rank 21st in eFG% and 28th in 3-point shooting percentage) tends to bite them in the butt against solid defense teams. So, I’ll stay away from the full-game total here.

Nuggets vs Raptors betting trend to know

The Raptors have only hit the Over in 21 of their last 55 games for -17.9 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Raptors.

Nuggets vs Raptors game info

Nuggets vs Raptors latest injuries

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