The two best stories of these NBA playoffs have been the eye-catching upstart in each conference. Yes, the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers flamed due to injuries, the Phoenix Suns emphasized the mistakes of building superteams, and LeBron James may enter free agency. But those are all storylines that can wait until the offseason.
These playoffs have been dictated by two physical defenses upsetting preseason contenders, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the New York Knicks leaning into the physical nature of postseason basketball.
Both face unique tests in these conference semifinals, the Timberwolves facing the best player in the world and the Knicks meeting a whirlwind offense. Just how good have these defenses been? Better than you may have realized...
Maybe Defense Still Does Win Championships
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ defense is known and praised by now. Even if presumptive four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert misses Game 2 for the birth of his child, Minnesota should make life difficult for the Denver Nuggets.
On paper, the Timberwolves’ defense has not dialed it up in the playoffs. Its season-long rating of 108.9 was No. 1 in the NBA. From Jan. 1 to the end of the regular season, it rated at 108.6. After the All-Star Break, it came in at 108.8. And in five playoff games thus far, Minnesota’s defensive rating has been 108.9.
Think about that for a moment.
The Timberwolves faced the Phoenix Suns, who had a big three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal — who finished the regular season with an offensive rating of 116.8 — and held them to an offensive rating of 109.3 in a four-game sweep.
A two-bucket dropoff per 100 possessions is how you turn a team designed around its offense into an offseason mess. If Minnesota does that to Denver (season offensive rating of 117.8, but 107.6 in Game 1), this series may end just as quickly, though now with a possible Game 2 anomaly without Gobert.
On paper, the New York Knicks’ defense has also eased up in the playoffs. Since trading for O.G. Anunoby on New Year’s, New York’s defensive rating ranked No. 3 to close the regular season at 110.3. Anunoby was in and out of the lineup, but that defensive rating largely held, ranking No. 4 at 109.5 from March 1 to the season’s end.
But in six playoff games against the Philadelphia 76ers, the Knicks’ defensive rating was 116.9.
This gets more difficult to perfectly quantify, given Joel Embiid’s injury-interrupted season, but per statmuse, the 76ers’ offensive rating with Embiid this season was 122.4.
That makes sense, given it ranked No. 2 (121.5) in the NBA up until Dec. 23, when his injuries began picking up steam after playing in 25 of the season’s first 28 games. Even through Jan. 25, when Embiid was forced to the sideline up until April after playing in 33 of 43 games, Philadelphia’s offensive rating was 119.7.
But in those six games in the first round, all obviously with Embiid, it fell to 116.9. Again, that is effectively two buckets. If New York does that to Indiana (No. 2 offensive rating in the regular season at 120.5), the Knicks can begin thinking about a matchup with the best offense in the NBA in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Tonight's NBA best bets
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
The six-game sample size may worry you, but Tom Thibodeau is not going to change his approach in the second round. Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart will play nearly every minute. Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein will provide a surprising interior defense. O.G. Anunoby will quarterback the entire defensive effort.
Donte DiVincenzo: "I can't stand these dudes" 😂
— Knicks Videos (@sny_knicks) May 3, 2024
Josh Hart: "We love each other. We're like brothers."
Jalen Brunson: "The chemistry and communication we have in that locker room, on and off the court, it's special." pic.twitter.com/ZnBA1keZvU
Ignoring the sample-size worry allows you to find value before oddsmakers catch all the way onto this New York defense. Expect it to slow down Indiana tonight and force a few more bad looks than usual. For that matter, add the Madison Square Garden crowd as a sixth defender, its second-round atmosphere perhaps getting under the young Pacers’ skin a bit.
Best bet: Pacers team total Under 106.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
Rudy Gobert’s possible absence tonight emphasizes two best bets already published in my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions. First of all, Karl-Anthony Towns may be in line for a few more minutes, further emphasizing his offensive impact.
The Nuggets have no choice but to load up on Anthony Edwards after he exposed their defense in Game 1. Any focus on Edwards will lead to mismatches in Towns’s favor, and KAT hardly needs mismatches to score, anyway. That was how he poured in 11 points in the first four minutes of Saturday’s second half.
Even if Gobert plays, Towns should see more open looks than usual for the best-shooting big man in NBA history.
Asking around a bit about Rudy Gobert, and there seems to be optimism that Gobert will be able to get back by game time tonight. The later tip helps (8pm MT).
— Dane Moore (@DaneMooreNBA) May 6, 2024
Secondly, Nikola Jokic already needs to pick up some offensive slack while Jamal Murray fights a nagging calf. That work will be only easier for Jokic if Gobert is not roaming the backline.
Best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 19.5 points (-105 at DraftKings after the Gobert update) and Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 points (-110 at BetMGM after the Gobert update)
NBA Trends: Unders Early
Six Unders cashed in the eight first-round Game 1s. Include Game 1 of the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, and Game 1s have now cashed seven Unders in nine games.
Games 2 through 4 in the first round then split perfectly evenly, 12 Overs and 12 Unders. Games 5 through 7 skewed heavily toward their Overs, with eight cashing in 11 games.
This makes some ounce of sense, teams beginning each series with a more exploratory thought, trying to feel out their opponent’s approach. And then, as the series progresses, players find rhythms.
Keep an eye on this tonight, and if Unders continue to hold up, perhaps act on it in both games on Tuesday.
Raising the ceiling: Western Drama
If you enjoy competitive basketball, become a fan of the Western Conference. Looking at series spread props, both conference semifinals are expected to go seven games.
Meanwhile, the Eastern Conference will be lucky to have one series make it to six games, with Pacers vs. Knicks obviously more likely in that consideration. Some of that is a credit to New York’s defense and Boston’s dominance. But much of it is praise of the four teams remaining in the West.
The Western Conference tip times will cost you some sleep, but they should be worth it.
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NBA futures update: Speaking of the West...
The Timberwolves are now the favorites to win the West. A first this season. https://t.co/TOaXiu2yaY pic.twitter.com/Rt1yae2DIx
— Douglas Farmer 🐺 (@D_Farmer) May 5, 2024
