Thunder vs Mavs Prop Picks and Best Bets: Washington Breakout Continues

Prop bet #1: Kyrie's scoring goes flat

Kyrie Irving has seen his scoring nose-dive in this series. While shooting slumps can quickly turn things around for volume scorers, the troubling part of Irving's scoring woes is that he hasn't been shooting much. 

After a Game 2 performance where he scored just nine points on 2-for-8 shooting, Irving bounced back with 22 points in Game 3. However, he has dropped just nine and 12 points in the last two games while taking just 11 field goal attempts in each contest. It's also worth noting that he has attempted a total of just two free throws over the last three games, so he hasn't been getting to the line for freebies, either. 

The Mavericks have been winning without Irving filling up the hoop, so there's little reason for them to switch things up on offense. I'm also expecting the Thunder to slow things down and emphasize defense in an elimination game, which is another reason to like the Under on Irving's points.

Kyrie Irving prop: Under 20.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Washing the glass

While Irving has seen his role on offense shrink, P.J. Washington has emerged as Luka Doncic's sidekick. Washington is coming off a Game 5 performance where he had a modest 10 points, but he had dropped more than 20 points in each of his previous three games. He's also been a force on the boards against a soft-rebounding OKC side, pulling down double-digit rebounds in three of his last four contests. 

Washington averaged 29.2 minutes per game with Charlotte, and that number ticked up to 32.2 mpg in 29 regular season games with Dallas. He has become even more of a workhorse in this series, averaging 39.8 minutes per game over the last four contests. With Washington getting plenty of burn and becoming a crucial part of this offense, bet on him to eclipse his points plus rebounds total.

P.J. Washington prop: Over 22.5 points +rebounds (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Giddey gimme

While Washington seldom leaves the floor for Dallas, Thunder guard Josh Giddey has been riding the pine. Giddey was inconsistent in the first round against New Orleans, and he's become an afterthought in this series. 

He scored just two points in 17 minutes in Game 1, and that's actually the most playing time he's seen in a game this series. With his unreliable defense and poor shooting, Giddey has often been the weak link in this Thunder lineup, and coach Mark Daigneault chose to have him come off the bench in Game 5. Giddey has averaged just 12 mpg over the last four contests, and I don't expect him to be on the floor much tonight. 

That said, oddsmakers have baked that into his player props, with the O/U on his points at 6.5 and the O/U on his assists at just 1.5. However, less playing time for Giddey also means fewer opportunities to mess things up. The Under 0.5 turnovers for Giddey is installed at +140 despite him not turning the ball over a single time in three games during this series.

Josh Giddey prop: Under 0.5 turnovers (+140 at bet365)