The No. 4-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide host the No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats in NCAA basketball action tonight.
The Tide are the highest-scoring team in the country but my Kentucky vs. Alabama predictions are betting on their defense to outperform expectations tonight.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this SEC clash on Saturday, February 22 at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kentucky vs Alabama prediction
My best bet
Kentucky team total Under 84.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The Alabama Crimson Tide have extreme home/away splits when it comes to their play on the defensive end of the floor.
While they allow 86.0 points per game on an effective field goal percentage of 50.3% in away games, they are holding foes to 73.7 PPG on 43.6 eFG% at home. In their last home game, they were torched by No. 1 Auburn, but they had allowed fewer than 75 points in three of their previous four contests at Coleman Coliseum.
Meanwhile, the Kentucky Wildcats have a sizzling 60.3 eFG% at home but that number plummets to 50.7% at road or neutral sites. They've been limited to fewer than 85 points in eight of 10 games away from home and are averaging 77.1 PPG in those contests.
In addition, the Wildcats will likely be without Jaxson Robinson for the fourth straight game while point guard Lamont Butler will miss his third in a row. Robinson is second on the team in scoring (13.3 PPG) and 3-pointers made (61) while Butler averages 12.5 PPG along with a team-high 4.6 assists.
Kentucky had already been affected by the lengthy absence of guard Kerr Kriisa and missing their second and third-leading scorers has further weakened their attack.
Kentucky vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Kentucky team total Under 84.5
Amari Williams Over 9.5 rebounds
Mark Sears 20+ points
With their backcourt decimated by injuries, the Wildcats have become more reliant on big man Amari Williams. He has grabbed double-digit boards in seven of his last 11 games and with both teams playing at a blazing-fast tempo, there will be plenty of possessions and available rebounds today.
The Wildcats are dead last in the SEC in adjusted defense during conference play and that combined with their fast pace has led to them surrendering 80.1 PPG against conference foes.
That should mean a big game for Alabama's leading scorer Mark Sears. The senior guard has been a bit inconsistent this season but he's coming off a 35-point performance against Mizzou and dropped 24 points against Kentucky when these teams clashed last month in Lexington.
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Kentucky vs Alabama odds
Kentucky vs Alabama live odds
Kentucky vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: Kentucky +8.5 (-115) | Alabama -8.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Kentucky +280 | Alabama -360
- Over/Under: Over 178.5 | Under 178.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kentucky vs Alabama betting trend to know
The first-half Under has cashed in 15 of Alabama's last 22 games at home (+8.25 Units / 33% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Alabama.
How to watch Kentucky vs Alabama
| Location | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Saturday, 2-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Kentucky vs Alabama key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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